Rudolf Gaiseb
Swapo parliamentarian Tobie Aupindi says a commodity reserve will protect Namibia against currency volatility, while physically backing dividends will protect Namibia’s wealth.
The member of parliament (MP) also expressed concern over Namibia’s mineral and natural resources wealth that has been converted into fiat currency for decades, saying it has exposed the country to inflation and placed it at the mercy of the whims of global central banks.
In what he terms the ‘Commodity Dividend Model’, the executive-turned-politician said that instead of the state receiving its dividends in Namibian dollars or US dollars from mining and other natural resources, “we should explore taking those dividends in physical commodities – be it gold, uranium, or the ‘new gold’, lithium.”
“This allows the State to build a strategic commodity reserve, providing a hedge against currency volatility and a physical backing for our national balance sheet,” Aupindi said in his submission to the 2026/2027 financial year budget debate. These sentiments were delivered in parliament during his contribution to the Appropriation Bill on Tuesday. According to the World Economic Outlook, global economic growth is projected at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, revised slightly up since October 2025.
Technology investment, fiscal and monetary support, supportive financial conditions, and private sector adaptation all helped to counter trade policy adjustments.
But while the “AI revolution” creates billionaires in developed countries, Aupindi underlined that Namibia’s primary industries, diamonds and gold, face volatility.
“Gold has surged to historic highs of $4 400/oz, yet our diamond sector struggles against lab-grown competition. We are operating in a two-speed world; Namibia cannot afford to remain in the slow lane of raw commodity exports while others sprint toward high-tech industrialisation,” the former Namibia Wildlife Resorts supremo said.
Meanwhile, in January 2026, non-monetary gold emerged as the second most exported commodity, valued at N$1.8 billion, accounting for 15.8% of total exports, solely destined for South Africa.
These latest statistics reveal that precious stones (diamonds) occupied the fourth position, valued at N$789 million with a share of 6.9% of total exports, absorbed by Botswana and the United Arab Emirates.
Uranium was Namibia’s largest exported commodity in January 2026, valued at N$3 billion, accounting for 26.3% of total exports, absorbed by China and France.
Namibia’s total export revenue grew to N$11.4 billion in January, a 6.7% increase from December 2025. Aupindi said the global economy of 2026 is no longer the predictable machine of the early 2000s. “We are navigating a polycrisis where volatile commodity markets, the rapid ascent of green hydrogen, and the shifting weights of the BRICS+ alliance have rewritten the rules of trade,” calling on Namibia to change the script.
The MP further highlighted that the national debt remains a shadow over economic growth, with interest payments consuming a staggering 18% of the revenue. He urged that the borrowing be pointed at productive infrastructure – rail, ports, and energy and exploitation of natural resources – rather than recurrent expenditure.
“While we seek to narrow the deficit to 3.3% by 2028, we must do so through productive growth, not austerity.” He also suggested taxing the economic rents of Namibia’s minerals more effectively to fund the Welwitschia Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Furthermore, in his view, while globally there’s a move toward “friend-shoring” and regional self-reliance, the SACU reforms.
The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) remains stuck in a colonial-era design.
Addressing the elephant in the room, he said, “For too long, Namibia has relied on SACU receipts as a fiscal crutch. For decades, we have treated the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) as a national ATM. Receipts have bolstered our reserves to N$51.9 billion, but this is passive wealth.
We must move from a revenue-sharing mindset to a regional value chain strategy.” He called for a move towards Namibia not just being a transit corridor for South African goods but a manufacturing hub that processes its own lithium and rare earths before they leave the borders.
Surviving this boat, he said, also involves the reformation of the revenue-sharing formula to reward value-addition within Namibia’s borders, not just consumption.
“If we do not industrialise, we are simply subsidising the manufacturing sectors of our neighbours while our youth remain unemployed,” he argued.
Moreover, the MP has also criticised state-owned enterprises for having become a “fiscal haemorrhage”. “Our State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have become drainage pipes for the fiscus. In 2026, we can no longer afford the luxury of bailing out inefficiency. The solution is not wholesale privatisation to the highest foreign bidder but rather social listing,” he said.
He wants a portion of these entities listed on the Namibia Stock Exchange (NSX), allowing ordinary Namibians and GIPF to hold them accountable. In like manner, the neighbouring South African government has also recently intensified its stance against bailing out inefficient SOEs, with Parliament halting financial bailouts and demanding improved governance while shifting financial priorities.
Moreover, Aupindi also advocated that the economy start balancing in favour of the Black majority.
While Black Namibians dominate the informal sector, representing up to a third of Namibia’s output, he said they remain financially excluded.
Hengari
Meanwhile, Popular Democratic Movement MP Inna Hengari noted that the suffocating weight of debt servicing now claims nearly 18% of revenue, and the wage bill consumes the fiscal space needed for capital formation and sustainable growth.
While at these, she also pointed to the secondary industries, manufacturing and construction, that she says have also weakened to 2.8%, signalling softer domestic demand and investment.
She added that only the tertiary sector, driven by wholesale, retail, and transport, offers limited resilience at 3.8%.
“The N$1.7 billion provided for civil service salary adjustments is politically unavoidable if we are to maintain morale and stability in health, education, and security. Yet this expenditure is overwhelmingly consumption-oriented. It delivers short-term relief but generates almost no multiplier effect toward future growth,” she said.
She added that with total operational spending now surpassing N$80 billion, accounting for more than 75% of the N$106.1 billion budget envelope, developmental spending, by contrast, is squeezed to the point of stagnation. The gravest threat, however, she warned, is the accelerating debt-servicing burden, “the interest cost trap”.
Public debt stands approximately at N$177.1 billion. Interest payments are forecast to reach N$16.2 billion in FY2026/27 from N$14.3 billion in the previous year.
“Public debt stands at 65.2% of GDP, with 27% held in short-term Treasury bills that must be rolled over frequently and at potentially higher rates. Recent liquidity pressures, the N$12.9 billion Eurobond maturity and the N$2 billion International Monetary Fund Rapid Financing Instrument repayment have already strained reserves and forced difficult trade-offs,” she added.