African airlines have emerged as one of the strongest performing regions in global aviation at the start of 2026. 

African airlines posted double-digit passenger growth even as geopolitical tensions in Iran threaten to disrupt flight schedules and push up fuel costs. 

According to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), African carriers recorded an 11.7% year-on-year increase in passenger demand in January 2026, well above the global average of 3.8%. 

Capacity for African airlines rose by 10.1% compared to January 2025, while load factor climbed to 77.4%, representing a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year. These figures underline sustained recovery momentum and growing appetite for air travel across the continent, both for business and leisure. 

Globally, total demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) increased 3.8% year-on-year, while total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), was up 3.5%. The worldwide load factor reached 82.0%, a record high for January and a marginal 0.2 percentage-point increase compared to a year earlier. 

Meanwhile, international travel continues to drive global recovery. International demand rose 5.9% compared to January 2025, with capacity up 5.8% and load factors at 82.5%. Domestic markets, however, showed near stagnation, with demand up just 0.1% and capacity down 0.4%, pushing domestic load factors to 81.2%. 

January’s performance was, however, skewed by the shifting timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in January in 2025, but moved to February in 2026. 

The Chinese holiday typically triggers a spike in travel demand across Asia and beyond, meaning that January 2026 figures appear slightly weaker in year-on-year comparisons. 

IATA Director General Willie Walsh cautioned that while the slower 3.8% global expansion is partly explained by the calendar effect, broader industry fundamentals remain intact. 

“The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion inJanuary, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026,” Walsh said.

However, the optimism is tempered by escalating geopol it ical instabi l ity, particularly the fallout from the ongoing conflict involving Iran. 

Over the past weekend, renewed hostilities triggered flight cancellations and airspace closures in much of the Middle East, forcing airlines to reroute aircraft, suspend services and absorb higher operational costs. 

Although African airlines are not directly involved in the conflict, many operate routes that traverse Middle Eastern airspace or connect through key hubs in the region. Flight cancellations and extended routing around restricted zones increase fuel burn, lengthen flight times and disrupt network efficiency. 

Higher fuel prices present an additional risk. Any sustained disruption to oil supply routes linked to the Iran conflict could drive jet fuel costs upward — a development that would squeeze airline margins already under pressure from regulatory and infrastructure costs. 

“We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities,” Walsh said. 

“In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians and civil aviation free from harm,” he said. 

For African airlines, the January data signals that demand for travel across and beyond the continent is accelerating faster than the global average. 

But the sustainability of that growth may hinge not only on market fundamentals, but also on how quickly geopolitical tensions subside and fuel prices stabilise. 

–ebrandt@nepc.com.na