Ukraine is running out of time as counter-offensive measures against Russia’s “special military operation” and the recent Ukraine’s terror incursion in Kursk Oblast of Russia dismally failed. 

Russia continues gaining more ground and seizing vast territories in relentless, fierce battles since then. The strategic town of Prokovsk is about to fall. But what has Ukraine achieved so far?

At a Global Conference on the Future in Canada in July 1980, which mainly covered issues of environment, natural resources and conservation, the president of the Club of Rome, Aurelio Peccei, stated: “The world is in a worse shape now than it was 10 years ago and is getting worse. Today, the world begins more and more to resemble a ricocheting bullet as it careens from disaster to disaster.”

Indeed, many observers of human affairs would also agree that world conditions and wars have definitely deteriorated in recent years. 

Diplomacy 

Since time immemorial, mankind has been searching for an ideal society where man can lead a happier, worthier and more rewarding life. An ideal society needs to be built by mankind – a society that is spiritually beautiful, materially affluent and humanly rewarding. This can only be possible if there is peace and security in the world. 

The importance of peace for any society is obvious. But without peace, no nation and no individual can prosper. Only in a peaceful atmosphere can mankind secure greater heights. A society without peace is like life in the state of nature — brutish, barbaric, short, dull and nasty, as Thomas Hobbes, an English philosopher, scientists and historian, pointed out. 

Every person on earth professes a desire for peace as an ultimate goal. This automatically prompts everyone to find out what the conditions necessary to ensure a stable place are. These remain a fundamental challenge to the modern world. While men have made many technological inventions, regrettably, they have not been able to “create peace”.

Ironically, scientists have unleashed the power of atoms but are powerless to check their danger for humanity. And the biggest danger in front of us today is that violence and science have joined hands not only to destroy the peace of the universe but also to threaten the very existence of humanity. As such, we have lost our peace.

It is therefore increasingly important that we find ways to live together in peace in our secure world. As such, diplomacy has existed since the beginning of the human race.

Without diplomacy, much of the world’s affairs would not exist, and the world would be in a constant state of war, and war would, in fact, never end because it normally ends with diplomatic negotiations, where it undergoes some changes from peace diplomacy to war diplomacy.

The crisis 

The origin of the political crisis in Ukraine stems from several historical developments that have unfolded inside the country itself since 1991 and culminated in political instability that stalled the peace dialogue and fuelled the war.

To enumerate, the events started with the establishment of a new nation state and the desire to join the regional economic union and NATO security block; the former Ukrainian president’s subsequent decision to reject a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union (EU) and NATO; the 2014 CIA engineered coup against an elected president; the annexation of the region of Crimea by Russia to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in southeast Ukraine; the heightened ethnic divisions and inter-ethnic war in the pro-Russia separatists eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which later held independence referenda, and; ultimately, the failure of the Minsk Accords. 

Sadly, despite the enormous size of the conflict, on 4 October 2022, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, signed an unpopular decree that ruled out negotiations with Russia’s president as “impossible.” He further stated that they are not ready for dialogue with Russia but with another president of Russia.

What was he in fact suggesting?

Although Russia announced the occupation of the four regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, at no point did Russia refused to negotiate. 

Many citizens of the world are reeling from shock by the issuance of that decree and such accompanying statement.

Sadly, the United Nations (UN) also dismally failed to intervene in the crisis. Now, with the issuance of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against the Russian president and the ultimate result of the war in favour of Russia, any negotiations for a peaceful settlement would be elusive as ever. 

More than 3.7 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced. Over 6.5 million fled the country, with a total civilian death of about 10 500 and another 20 000 people injured.

There has also been catastrophic damage to civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded in the war are nearing 500 000. The country is facing a catastrophic future. But alas, the war continues unabated. 

Search for peace

In June this year, after almost two-and-a-half years of devastating war, death and destruction, more than 90 countries met in Switzerland at Bürgenstock resort on bringing peace to Ukraine.

Ironically, Russia was not invited, and some key developing nations, including China, did not join in. As such, yet, the way forward for diplomacy remains unclear. But at least, sanity has now prevailed. 

Fundamentally, a search for peace, dialogue and diplomacy is important. Namibia’s experience reminds us that sustainable peace and freedom are hard won through dialogue and diplomacy. It was thus such bad advice by the US, NATO and its Western backers to dissuade Ukraine to desert the peace dialogue. 

In summary, diplomacy stands as an accepted process of relations among nations, other actors and adversaries. Therefore, peace dialogue through diplomacy is a practice of mutual accommodation applied in different procedures to achieve social transformation.

Unfortunately, when there’s a breakdown of diplomacy, there’s a likelihood of a major crisis of war, as is the case in Ukraine. Hence, Namibia’s outrage lies in the desire and conviction that Ukraine rescinds its decree to reject dialogue with Russia and return to the negotiating table for peace to end the war. 

*JB Tjivikua is a crime intelligence analyst and a retired major general of the Namibian Police.