African airlines experienced a 14.7% year-over-year increase in air cargo demand in September 2025. This was the strongest rise of all regions around the world as the continent’s air cargo capacity increased by 7.4% year-on-year.  

Overall, global air cargo demand increased by 2.9% in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth for this specific aviation sector.  According to the latest global air cargo figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), this is the case. IATA further indicated that total air cargo demand for September 2025, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), rose by 2.9% compared to September 2024 levels. 

Moreover, air cargo capacity, measured in ACTK, increased by 3% compared to September 2024. “Air cargo demand grew 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of overall growth. Buried in that growth is a significant alteration of trade patterns as US tariff policies, including the ending of de minimis exemptions, kick in. On one side of the equation, a decline in demand from North America and Asia has set in over the last five months. But this has been more than compensated for with strong growth within Asia and on routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. While many had feared an unwinding of global trade, we are instead seeing air cargo adapting successfully to serve shifting market demands,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. 

In its analysis, IATA pointed out several factors in the aviation operating environment that contributed to the latest figures. These factors include global goods trade, which grew by 3.7% year-on-year in August; jet fuel prices rose 5.4% in September, despite lower oil prices, driven by a tighter diesel market; and global manufacturing sentiment, which strengthened in September. 

This resulted in new export orders improving slightly but remaining below the expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty.

Moreover, in terms of demand and capacity for airline passengers in September 2025, African airlines saw a 5.3% year-on-year increase in demand and experienced a 5.1% increase in capacity. 

Additionally, African airlines achieved a 74.7% passenger load factor, which represents the percentage of available revenue-generating seats filled by the market, in September.  

– ebrandt@nepc.com.na