GENEVA – The global unemployment rate is expected to hold steady in 2026, the United Nations stated yesterday, but cautioned the labour market’s seeming stability belies a dire shortage of decent jobs.
The UN’s International Labour Organisation (ILO) noted the global economy and labour market appeared to have weathered recent economic shocks better than expected.
But the ILO warned that efforts to improve global job quality had stagnated, leaving hundreds of millions of workers wallowing in poverty, even as trade uncertainty risked cutting into workers’ wages.
The global unemployment rate was estimated at 4.9% in 2019 and 2020 and is now projected to remain at a similar level through 2027, according to a report from the UN labour agency.
That amounts to 186 million people out of work this year, it said.
“Global labour markets look stable, but that stability is quite fragile,” Caroline Fredrickson, head of the ILO’s research department, told reporters, cautioning that the “apparent calm masks deeper and unresolved problems.”
At a time when US president Donald Trump has slapped towering tariffs on friends and foes alike, the report cautioned that “disruptions caused by trade uncertainty, combined with ongoing long-term transformations in global trade, could significantly affect labour market outcomes.”
Going forward, the ILO said its modelling suggested that a moderate increase in trade policy uncertainty “may reduce returns to labour and, as a consequence, real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers across all sectors,” especially in southeast Asia, southern Asia, and Europe.
The potential of trade to generate new employment opportunities was also challenged by ongoing disruptions, the report said, noting that 465 million jobs globally depended on foreign demand through exports of goods and services and related supply chains in 2024.
Another major concern highlighted by the ILO was the quality of jobs available.
“Resilient growth and stable unemployment figures should not distract us from the deeper reality: hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in poverty, informality, and exclusion,” ILO chief Gilbert Houngbo said in a statement.
Nearly 300 million workers continue to live in extreme poverty, earning less than US$3 a day, yesterday’s report found.
At the same time, some 2.1 billion workers are expected to hold informal jobs this year, with limited access to social protection, labour rights, and job security.
Young people remain particularly vulnerable, with unemployment among 15 to 24-year-olds projected to reach 12.4% in 2025, and around 260 million young people not engaged in education, employment, or training, the ILO said.
It warned that artificial intelligence and automation could exacerbate challenges, particularly for educated young people in wealthier countries seeking their first high-skill jobs.
– Nampa/AFP
