CURRENTLY the population of Namibia is 2.2 million. Do we have any idea what the population will be like by the year 2030? Do we know where people are going to reside; will the urban/rural demographics still be the same? In other words, are we still going to have the majority of our people residing in rural areas as compared to urban areas? Where will people migrate to?
Our Statistician-General has released the Namibia Population Projections for the next 30 years, 2011 to 2041. These population projections provide us with a snapshot of what our population will look like and where they will be located.
The Namibian population is estimated to increase to 2.9 million in 2030 and to 3.44 by 2041. Life expectancy is projected to increase to 64.1 and 72.1 percent for men and women respectively which is an upward trend from 53.3 and 60.5 percent for males and females in 2011.
Our forecasts also show that by the year 2030 the urban/rural demographics will have completely changed. Currently over 60 percent of our population live in rural areas. By the year 2030 a good 60 percent of our population will reside in urban areas. In the year 2041, 67 percent of our population will live in urban areas whilst only 33 percent will reside in rural areas.
The population projections further tell us in which regions people are going to live. Currently the Khomas, Ohangwena, Omusati and the Kavango regions are the most populous in the country. The growth projections indicate that the Khomas and Erongo regions will grow fast to an extent that they alone will be populated by one third, 33 percent, of our population.
Khomas is estimated to double its population by the year 2030; up from 350 000 today. The population of Erongo currently stands at above 150 000 and will see a significant increase over the next few years. All these changes obviously have implications on the way we are organized as a society. I will use the examples of education, housing, and transport infrastructure to illustrate my point.
Regarding education, we are all aware that every year we hear headlines about the shortage of classrooms and education facilities. Many learners and students find themselves often stranded, without education. The housing deficit is also well documented. At the moment there is a high demand for housing but not sufficient supply. This really does not need much elaboration as most are aware of the housing supply at the moment.
Housing is considered a need, and since the population is growing and more people are flocking to the cities, we need to prepare early in order to be ready for the expected.
Transport infrastructure is the last example I will use. Most people can attest to it that at times traffic can be congested. At many times one spends a considerable amount of time stuck in traffic. Again, considering the population growth projections we can safely conclude that by the year 2030, and beyond, we shall have many more vehicles on our roads, especially with the changes in the urban/rural demographics. Is our current transport infrastructure ready to handle this?
The Namibia Statistics Agency has released the Population Projections 2011 – 2041. At this moment we would like to encourage all policy makers at all levels, and interested Namibians, to make use of or acquaint themselves with it. The report is available at our head offices and will be delivered to all national libraries as well.
• Iipumbu Sakaria is the Deputy Director for Strategic Communications at the NSA.