WINDHOEK – The Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), which yesterday launched its population projections, estimates the country’s population will increase from 2.1 million in 2011 to 3.4 million by 2041, representing an increase of 63 percent.
Population projections are crucial for policy makers to ensure adequate development plans are in place to provide physical and social infrastructure to serve the growing population.
“In a lower case scenario the population will increase to 3.3 million, while in the higher case scenario the population could reach 3.6 million people,” said Dr John Steytler, the Statistician General of the NSA.
He also revealed that between 2015 and 2030 the Namibian population is projected to grow from 2.3 million to 3 million, representing an increase of 30 percent. This means that during the next 15 years the Namibian population will increase by 700 000.
Steytler said that knowing the future size of the population is also useful to estimate the future demand for food, housing and social services. “Education authorities may want to know the number of children in the coming years to assess the future demand for education, particularly at primary level. Health administrators may be interested in knowing the future population of children under the age of five for the delivery of immunization services to protect children against childhood diseases. Private companies and investors are interested in future age structures as an indicator of consumption patterns,” explained Steytler.
According to the latest NSA report, the population of the Khomas Region will increase from 340 000, as indicated by the 2011 census, to 645 000 by 2030, representing an increase of 305 000 people. This means that the policy makers will have to address numerous issues surrounding the ballooning population such as housing delivery and house prices, how existing infrastructure will cope and what the loss of productivity will be due to traffic congestion.
The report also states that recent patterns of migration will continue into the future, meaning that the number of people living in rural areas is expected to gradually shrink while those living in urban areas are projected to increase sharply by 2041. “The … population living in urban areas is projected to increase from 43 percent in 2011 to 67 percent in 2041. It is projected that over a third of Namibia’s population will live in the Khomas and Erongo regions by 2041,” noted Steytler. Furthermore, the report says that due to a projected fertility decline over the next 15 years, the Namibian population under the age of 15 will decline modestly from 36.4 percent to 33.7 percent.
In contrast, the proportion of the population age 65 and above is expected to remain fixed at 4.5 percent.
According to the report, the total fertility rate (the number of births per woman) is expected to decline from 3.9 percent in 2011 to 2.4 by 2041.
Life expectancy at birth is projected to rise by 11 years for males and 12 years for females from 2011 to 2041.