Bleak outlook for maize 2015: Total harvest could be less than 35 000 tonnes

Home Farmers Forum Bleak outlook for maize 2015: Total harvest could be less than 35 000 tonnes

By Deon Schlechter

WINDHOEK – Namibian rain-fed producers countrywide have warned of a dismal total maize production of less than 35 000 tonnes this year due to the erratic rainfall since November last year.

After harvesting a total of 70 328 tonnes in the previous season, a shadow of gloom and doom has been cast over  commercial and communal water-fed crop farming areas across Naimibia, and fears are mounting that this season’s white maize and mahangu crops are bound for a dismal failure in the absence of rain in January and very little promise of late rains in February. As little as 35 percent of total crops planted is now expected at harvest time later this year.

The situation prompted the  Agronomic Producers Association (NAPA) to call for an urgent meeting of all roleplayers in Windhoek last week where a bleak outlook for this year’s annual maize and mahangu production was painted by producers who have basically thrown in the towel. The Chairperson of APA, Gernot Eggert, in an exclusive interview with Farmers Forum after the day-long meeting, said producers in all rain-fed areas have been caught in an unpredictable and unforseen situation. “In all my years as maize producer I have never seen such strange weather patters as this year. Towards the end of last year, some good downpours in certain areas got the spirit of producers in the Maize Triangle up and most of them started planting in all earnest, hopeful of a good rainy season. But from there on things just got worse and I can tell you the mood has chanmged from optimistic to one of sheer desperation as they witness their planted material being scorched by the blazing sun day after day.For the greater part of the Maize Triangle there is just no hope left. Their maize, now in seed and desperately in need of rain – is standing knee-high whereas it should have been more than 1.5 metres by now. It is a sad sight,” he laments.

Eggert says the situation was discussed in detail and the recommendation was that the Minister of Agriculture, Water and Forestry, John Mutorwa, will now be fully informed about the crisis as seriously depleted harvest in all rain-fed areas will have a devastating effect on food security.

His assesment comes in the wake of the latest National Early Warning and Food Information System Reportr which warns about food security that is weakening fast as the hunger season progresses in the absence of rain. Great concern has been expressed in all regions, except the Hardap district where average to above average harvests of both maize and wheat under irrigation are expected. The Grootfontein/Tsumeb/Otavi  areas as well as Summerdown area where most of the country’s dry land maize is produced, so far had poor and erratic rain which means that the biggest part of these areas will have poor to no harvests. The erratic rain however still caused that some farmers expect a good harvest. The general sentiment however is that the situation is already critical with only about 35% crop which is expected in the dry land areas. Ground nuts are also under pressure, but the more drought resistant nature thereof means that producers expect a slightly better crop.

The economic impact of poorer maize harvests, which is also expected in South Africa, is divergent and includes the possibility from more expensive fodder to a decrease in weaner prices as the feeding costs of feed lots increase. Cheaper oil and petrol prices, however, have the opposite effect and might counteract the impact of the poorer harvest in a certain measure.APA is still aware of the pressure which will hit farmers who produce under dry land and emphasised the role of government to support farmers. It was thus decided to write a letter to the Minister of Agriculture in which the critical condition of this industry is highlighted. The Support of the government is necessary to ensure that farmers, who have poor to no harvests, can continue in the upcoming planting season. However, there is always a silver lining at each dark cloud and the Namibia Agricultural Union (NAU)’s production cost index already shows relief for farmers at the expenditure side as the prices of various inputs have already decreased since the third quarter of 2014, driven by the decrease in prices van various commodities of which oil takes the lead.