Windhoek
Namibia will have to import almost 210 000 tonnes of cereal to ensure food security as a consequence of the 2013 and 2015 droughts, a government report indicates.
The devastating effects of the two droughts resulted in some of the poorest harvests in recent history and also had an adverse impact on the country’s livestock rangelands.
A serious food shortage is forecast for the northern communal areas by the end of August, says the Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation Report, released by the government on Friday. Maize production in the communal areas of the Zambezi,
Kavango East and Kavango West regions indicate a reduction of 80% below average and 73% lower than last season’s harvest.
In the commercial areas, the maize harvest showed a significant drop of 46% less than last season’s harvest and 12% below the average production.
As a country, the national coarse aggregate production (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) is estimated at 67 800 tonnes, reflecting a substantial decrease in the harvest of about 46% below the average production and 49% lower than last season’s harvest.
The national cereal aggregate is 17% lower than the 2013 drought, demonstrating the seriousness of the current drought.
The report states that although maize production in the commercial areas recorded about 36 700 tonnes this season, over 92% of this total came from irrigation projects, and dry land maize only contributed about 8% of the total.
Pearl millet production showed a decrease of over 74% below average and 65% less than last season.
“Sorghum production has also showed a significant decrease and is estimated at 79% below the average production and 60% lower than last season. Wheat is a winter crop and production thereof is ongoing. The harvest estimate for wheat is provisionally forecast at 12 700 tonnes. This reflects an increase of 21% above the average production and 23% higher than last season,” the report notes.
Many dry land crop producers in both communal and commercial areas are reported to have suffered a total crop failure, with no single harvest this year.
“Available cereal locally for the current marketing/consumption period is estimated at 92 500 tonnes. This comprises 20 300 tonnes of wheat, 54 700 tonnes of white maize and 17 500 tonnes of pearl millet and sorghum,” according to the report.
“In contrast, the current domestic cereal domestic availability is only about 28% of the cereal requirements; hence a shortfall of 234 000 tonnes is required to cover the shortfall. This consists of 59 800 tonnes of wheat, 118 100 tonnes of maize and 56 100 tonnes of pearl millet and sorghum.”
“After the considerations of imports received during May and June this year, an after-trade deficit of 209 100 tonnes is estimated. This deficit consists of 47 000 tonnes of wheat, 107 100 tonnes of maize and 55 000 tonnes of millet/sorghum. This deficit under the normal circumstances is expected to be covered through commercial imports in the form of either grain or meals,” the report further states.
Meanwhile, South Africa from where Namibia gets most of its maize imports, reported a 31% decrease in commercial white maize harvested this season. According to the South Africa June 2015 Monthly Food Security Bulletin, the country expects only 9 840 million tonnes this season, compared to 14 250 million tonnes received last season.
Water availability for livestock is limited too, as most catchment areas did not receive significant inflows this season. The affected regions are mostly the north-central regions that are heavily dependent on surface/rainfall water for livestock consumption. “Given the poor harvest as well as poor grazing conditions, the majority of households are expected to face serious food insecurity conditions as from August,” the report warns.
It is recommended that the current food aid, which was set for three months targeting vulnerable people, should be extended and broadened to include all households affected by drought this year, until such time that they are able to regain their normal livelihoods, the SA report says.