HONG KONG – Markets fluctuated yesterday as rising expectations that Donald Trump will return to the White House played up against fresh hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once this year.

Traders struggled to extend gains on Wall Street, where the Dow chalked up its first record since May, while the dollar rose with Treasury yields on speculation that another Trump tariff battle with China and likely tax cuts could push inflation higher.

Recent polls show the former president’s chances of beating incumbent Joe Biden have surged since the assassination attempt on him at the weekend, while his choice of JD Vance saw US futures extend gains.

“Increased market confidence after Saturday’s failed assassination attempt that Donald Trump will be re-elected president in November has been reflected in market movements across US Treasuries, equities and currencies since the weekend,” said Ray Attrill at National Australia Bank.

“The US yield curve is steeper, the dollar modestly higher, and energy and banking stocks leading the charge in the S&P500.”

While the Dow led gains in New York, Asia investors were a little more cautious.

Hong Kong dropped more than 1%, owing to further losses in the tech sector, while Sydney, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta also fell, though Tokyo, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Mumbai edged up.

Shanghai was slightly higher, with traders awaiting policy measures from China’s leaders as they hold a key economic meeting this week.

London, Paris and Frankfurt were also down.

There was some support after Fed chief Jerome Powell reiterated comments pointing to a possible rate cut, following a recent run of positive readings on inflation.

“We didn’t gain any additional confidence in the first quarter, but the three readings in the second quarter, including the one from last week, do add somewhat to confidence,” he said in an interview with David Rubenstein of the Economic Club of Washington DC.

He added: “If we were to see an unexpected weakening in the labour market, then that might also be a reason for reaction by us.”

Powell’s remarks came after he told lawmakers last week that Fed officials did not need to wait for inflation to fall to their 2% target before cutting.

Also Monday, San Francisco Fed boss Mary Daly said there was growing optimism that the fight against surging prices was being won, though she did say she wanted to see more data.

The dovish comments over the past week have sent bets on a September rate cut soaring, while some traders are eyeing as many as three by the end of the year.

Despite that, the dollar held its gains as the possibility of a Trump win increases.

“The confluence of political developments, economic data, and central bank actions continues to create a complex landscape for global currencies,” said Luca Santos, market analyst at ACY Securities. – Nampa/AFP