By Prof. Monish Gunawardana
International University of Management-Namibia Live Earth Our Earth is becoming hot. Humans as well as animals feel that heat. Over the past two decades, even great white polar bears were disturbed by the melting icecaps. Moreover, 70 species of frogs were wiped out by global warming. The Namibian San people’s quiver tree (Aloe dichotoma) and South Africa’s national flower (King protea) are facing extinction. Rising temperature has wiped out some of the world’s oldest civilizations – Mayan (Mexico), Mesopothemia (Iraq/Syria), Mohondajaro-Harppa (India) and Anuradhapura (Sri Lanka). Last Saturday, the Live Earth Concert, organized by Al Gore, a former US Vice-President, mobilized 150 mega-stars like Madonna, Sakira, Joey Yung and Bon Jovi to transmit the global warming message coated with music. It is reported that nearly two billion people across 129 countries listened to those heated songs. Global warming is a scientifically proven fact. Nevertheless, it is an inconvenient truth. The year 2006 was the sixth warmest year since 1850. Rising sea levels, long droughts, searing temperature and disastrous hurricanes have dispelled the doubts surrounding global warming. Weather/Climate When we discuss global warming, it is necessary to look at the weather and climate. Weather includes daily fluctuations in temperature, perspiration, wind conditions and barometric pressure in a given place at a given time. Weather can fluctuate a lot within a short time. For instance, it may rain for a few hours and then become sunny. The climate is the sum total of all weather that appeared over a period of years in a given place. Therefore, the climate includes average weather conditions and regular weather patterns (e.g. summer, spring and winter). In addition, the climate includes extraordinary weather events like hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, ice storms, wild fire, droughts, and global warming. The climate change stands for the changes in the aforesaid long-term weather patterns. Furthermore, climate changes can become warmer or cooler and mean increasing or decreasing rainfall or snow formations. Greenhouse Effect The Earth receives energy from the sun. It comes as the heat and light. That energy passes through the atmosphere, and reaches the Earth. After absorbing the energy, the Earth re-radiates towards the atmosphere by longer waves (>775 nanometre). The atmosphere is a gaseous roof that is similar to the glass roof of a greenhouse. The floor of the greenhouse is the surface of the earth. The Sun’s long-wave radiation cannot pass through the atmosphere. Then, the atmosphere becomes warm. The warming of the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases is known as the greenhouse effect. The aforesaid gasses are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapour and some other gaseous species. The major greenhouse gasses that reinforce the greenhouse effect are carbon dioxide, methane nitrous oxide and other gasses, including water vapour. Gas Figures As a result of the industrialization, the world releases large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every day. The following statistics explain a natural phenomenon amplified by global industrialization and the role of solar energy. Around 20 percent of the solar energy is absorbed by the atmosphere, 30 percent is reflected back into space and 50 percent is absorbed by the Earth. Human activities contribute to the greenhouse gasses in the following manner: Transport is responsible for 21% of greenhouse gases and Industries 21%, Buildings 20%, Agriculture 16%, Energy 13% and Solid Wastes 3% of greenhouse gases. Besides that, gases contributing to reinforce the greenhouse effect are as follows: Carbon dioxide 69.6%, Methane 12.4% and other gases like Hydro-Chlorofluorocarbons 2.2%. Carbon Emission Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas that comprises of 0.038 % (381 parts per million) of the atmosphere. It absorbs and traps the heat into the atmosphere. All green plants and living things are supported by this gas. Our key energy sources like coal, oil and natural gas are the remains of ancient green plants, and animals are made of carbon. They were deposited under the ocean or Earth for millions of years. By burning coal and oil to operate power stations or motor vehicles, we release vast amounts of carbon dioxide, which is emitted into the atmosphere. Methane, nitrous oxide and water vapour are the other greenhouse gases that build the heat of the atmosphere. The heated atmosphere warms the globe. Carbon-based energies warm the atmosphere and the globe. Warming Impact During the past million years, the overall temperature level of the Earth was within 1 Celsius (1.8 Fahrenheit). After the industrial revolution, the world’s emissions of greenhouse gas such as carbon dioxide increased tremendously. The study of the Carnegie Institute reveals that, between 2001 and 2004 worldwide, carbon emissions increased by 3.1% per year. The temperature increases could prompt deadly flood, severe droughts, heat waves and hurricanes. On October 2005, the hurricane Katherina (Louisiana/USA) caused 1,836 deaths, 75,000 destroyed boats, 5 oil spills and US$75 billion in damages. The year 2005 was extremely hot and the average temperature of the Earth was 14.7 Celsius (58.6 Fahrenheit). Harsh global changes in climate, food and water supply will turn our planet into a heated hell. Evil Energies Energy was one of the most intensively debated human development issues at the World Summit for Sustainable Development (WSSD) in 2002 in Johannesburg. Its focus was the reduction of adverse effects to the atmosphere. Our lives, services and industries are primarily run by non-renewable energies such as coal, fossil oil and natural gas. The following statistics show the world’s primary energy use by different energy-sources in 2001: – Oil=35.1%, Coal=22.6%, Natural Gases=21.7%, Traditional-Biomass=9.3%, Nuclear=6.9%, Hydro=2.3% and Renewable Energies such as Solar, Wind, Biogas, Thermal, 2.2%. (Source: UNDP-World Energy Assessment Overview: 2004 Update). Non-renewable energies such as coal, natural gas and oil are the prime movers of our modern civilization. Nonetheless, they are born with carbons. They emit carbons and thicken the atmosphere with greenhouse gasses. Renewable Energies As per the UNDP-World Energy Assessment Overview, the renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, bio-fuel, and thermal power contribute to the present global economy only 2.3%. India, an emerging technological giant, generates only less than 5% of energy from renewable sources. These energy sources inherit technological limitations and high production costs. To my mind, to increase their contribution up to 10% of the global energy demand, with the support of advanced research and development, can take at least 15 years from now. However, renewable energy sources will continue to address our household energy needs, rural electrification and small industries. Furthermore, bio-fuel will satisfy the oil thirst of automobiles in a limited manner. Even though, the renewable energies are clean or eco-friendly, to move forward the knowledge-based industrialization process, nations are forced to use core energy sources. To operate massive industrial plants or a transport system, the core energies such as coal, fossil oil, and natural gases remain as necessary evils. Nuclear Mix Massive manufacturing plants, power stations, transport systems and the growing demand for consumer products and services should rely on the sustainable and carbon-free energy sources. Bruno Lescocour, Vice-President of the Electricite de France, believes in a “carbon-dioxide free energy mix : 50 % nuclear, 20 % renewable, even though, nuclear power was forgotten in the previous century and the global warming and current energy crises have forced the world to look at the nuclear energy as a smart alternative. The highly developed industrial economies such as the USA, Japan, France, Canada, Germany and the UK are powered by nuclear energy. The core energy source of the abovementioned energy mixture is nuclear energy. Hence, the issue of global warming and the global power hunger can be addressed by the Nuclear-Based Energy Mix (NBEM). The World Energy Council’s Millennium Statement, “Energy for tomorrow’s World; Act now”, reminds nations to: “Keep their energy options open, including the safe use of nuclear power and promotion of renewable energy.”