By Petronella Sibeene WINDHOEK Following reports that southern Africa is likely to face serious grain shortages this year, Namibia’s largest grain-processing company, Namib Mills, is confident it has sufficient maize to supply the Namibian market. Last week, the World Food Programme (WFP) reported that southern Africa would face severe drought due to erratic rainfalls, prolonged dry spells, and floods that have swamped most crop fields in several countries in the region, including Namibia, where thousands of people have been displaced. Namib Mills Marketing Manager, Margareth Gustavo, yesterday told New Era: “There is no reason to doubt that sufficient grain will be available to supply the Namibian market. Namib Mills has done this successfully since 1982.” While millers in Namibia are obliged to purchase all locally-produced maize and wheat, this however has always been insufficient to supply local requirements. About 60 percent of white maize is imported from South Africa while 80 percent of wheat comes from Europe and the United States of America. Given the much-anticipated drought situation, South Africa – the largest producer of maize in the region and from where Namibia procures its commercial grain imports – is facing similarly poor harvest prospects this year. According to Gustavo, raw materials can be readily sourced from various countries. From a practical point, stockholding will vary from one to three months, throughout the year, irrespective of whether there is a local bumper crop or not. Considering that the price of grain is an economic mechanism of supply and demand, the anticipated situation leaves millers with no option but to increase consumer prices. Already, South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) price of white maize has increased from N$1ÃÆ’Æ‘ÀÃ…ÃÆ”šÃ‚ 300/ton to N$2ÃÆ’Æ‘ÀÃ…ÃÆ”šÃ‚ 065/ton from January 1, 2007 to date. The increase was necessitated by smaller crop expectations as a result of drought conditions. “Millers have no option but to increase their product prices when raw material input costs increase to this extent,” she added. Even if hunger is likely and imports are inevitable this year, the local miller says it would never resort to importing genetically-modified foods. Gustavo stated: “Legislation has been promulgated, but has not been enforced, and presently there is not a specific requirement that imported grain should be GMO-free. Namib Mills, being a law-abiding company, will align with Government policy.” A recently-released report from the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry indicates that overall, adequate and sustained rainfall is urgently needed in most parts of the country both for crop production and for replenishing reservoirs. In the absence of such rainfall, there is a serious risk that the entire crop will be lost and livestock conditions will deteriorate due to limited water supply. While the final outcome of the 2006/07 cereal crops in Namibia still depends crucially on El NiÃÆ’Æ‘Æ‘ÃÆ”šÃ‚±o-related weather behaviour in the coming weeks, there is already a widespread distrust about the likely outcome of the season. As of mid-January 2007, crop-growing conditions have been generally unfavourable in most parts, with below-normal rainfall received since October 2006. Domestic coarse grain production this year will therefore depend highly – if not almost exclusively – on commercial areas that are irrigated. To ensure adequate supply at national level, food security will be conditioned through increased commercial grain imports. Meanwhile, Director of the World Food Programme (WFP) in Namibia, John Prout, told New Era that his office is awaiting a report from government that will give a clear picture of the crop situation in the country, after which it will act accordingly. He could not reveal the budget for such a programme, adding that it was too early to say, especially that the magnitude of drought is still not yet determined. The Emergency Management Unit (EMU) in the office of the Prime Minister is closely monitoring the situation. A follow-up visit to the regions is planned for April/May 2007. If the situation shows no improvement, it will become necessary to undertake a countrywide vulnerability assessment in June 2007 to determine the severity of transitory food insecurity and the assistance that may be required as a result of the production shortfalls.