Vision 2030’s overall goal is that Namibia becomes a developed country. This should be realised through economic transformation and industrialisation. This ambition is central to NDP5. In a competitive world, the Namibian economy has to be high performing, competitive and productive. During NDP5, priority attention should be given to address energy and water shortages as these are vital inputs in the production process. Omu Kakujaha, a senior economics lecturer at the University of Namibia, says that economic transformation in the Namibian context means bringing those who were previously excluded by the apartheid system into the mainstream economy.
Kakujaha said that in its 30 years of independence, Namibia crafted many good policies aimed particularly in achieving this goal. “Have it succeeded? The answer is yes and no. Yes, in the sense that blacks have started participating in economic sectors that were unimaginable before independence. No, in that the system is not inclusive and only created a small black elite, in many instances connected to the political elite to the exclusion of the majority of Namibians,” he explained.
So, the neoliberal capitalist system adopted has left many excluded, which is compounded by high rates of unemployment and deepening levels of poverty.
Namibia is faced with the challenge of high levels of poverty and inequality, which constrains economic growth and reinforces itself through high levels of unemployment. Namibia has to overcome both poverty and the upper-middle-income trap if it is to realise its ambitions.
The principle of sustainable development permeates NDP5. As such, the plan frames the achievement of progress within a framework of ensuring the ability of future generations to thrive. In the same spirit, NDP5 has four key goals, namely to achieve inclusive, sustainable and equitable economic growth. During the NDP4 period the economy grew on average by 4.6% on account of a large investment in extractive sectors and accelerated government expenditure, which boosted the construction sector and supported the social sectors.
As a result, the country experienced declines in poverty levels from 28% in 2009/2010 to 18% in 2015/2016, a significant drop from the 38% recorded in 2004. However, the growth in employment opportunities fell short of the new entrants in the labour market. The poverty figures are according to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) baseline report for Namibia for 2019, launched by the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) last year. T This is to be achieved by addressing four mutually supportive initiatives of structural transformation through value addition, expansion and modernisation of physical infrastructure, strengthening export capacity and greater regional integration, and supportive financial infrastructure for greater inclusion. The condition for addressing and achieving results in this area is first and foremost to ensure macroeconomic stability.
Structural transformation refers to the transformation of a nation’s economic structure through industrial diversification. This includes upgrading existing products and industries and the development of human capital through education and training. NDP5 recognises that structural transformation is a key strategy in Namibia’s graduation to a high-income nation. So Namibia is still to achieve economic transformation and building an inclusive economy and our success, for now, is entrenched in NDP5. The desired outcome(s) for structural transformation is to diversify the economy from reliance on primary industries towards a greater contribution from secondary and tertiary (fewer government services) industries to GDP. This will increase economic activities, create more employment opportunities and facilitate the distribution of income. Expansion and modernisation of infrastructure will create an enabling environment for economic growth, and facilitation of trade and innovation.
Furthermore, taking into account the interventions that NDP5 aims to implement, the economy is projected to create about 200 000 jobs over the entire NDP5 period.
The secondary industry sector is projected to contribute about a third of total employment, while 12% of the total jobs are projected to come from the construction sector.
Primary industries, on the other hand, are estimated to contribute about 56% of the total employment of which agriculture will still be the single largest employer at 30% of total employment. But the unemployment rate is projected to remain high until 2021/22 and thereafter drop to below 20% as the NDP5 initiatives take full effect.
Improved systems of governance will facilitate the collaboration of many sectors in achieving structural transformation.
Special attention will be paid to the implementation and monitoring of inclusive economic growth through the provision of high-quality government services including water, sewage, electricity generation, transport, housing, and spatial planning.
Central to this effort is the State’s technical capacity for integrated planning, both at the national and subnational level and cross-sectorial implementation.
During the NDP5 period, the Namibian economy is projected to move from an input-dependent economy to a knowledge-based economy. Investments will be made in research and development, skills development, diversification of economic activities and greater value addition. To accelerate inclusive and equitable growth, four mutually supportive initiatives will be pursued: structural transformation through industrialisation; expansion and modernisation of physical infrastructure; strengthened export capacity and greater regional integration, and supportive financial infrastructure for greater inclusion.◆