Dr Moses Amweelo
Left unchecked, humans and nature will experience catastrophic warming, with worsening droughts, rising sea levels and mass extinction of species. The world faces a huge challenge, but there are potential solutions.
Climate is the average weather in a place over many years. Climate change is a shift in those average conditions. The rapid climate change we are now seeing is caused by humans using oil, gas and coal for their homes, factories and transport. The world is now about 1.1 degree Celsius warmer than it was in the 19th Century and the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has risen by 50%. Carbon dioxide measured at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA’s) Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory peaked for 2022 at 421 parts per million in May, pushing the atmosphere further into territory not seen for millions of years, scientists from NOAA and Scrips Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego announced recently.
“The science is irrefutable: Humans are altering our climate in ways that our economy and our infrastructure must adapt to,” said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad.
“We can see the impacts of climate change around us every day. The relentless increase of carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa is a stark reminder that we need to take urgent, serious steps to become a more climate ready nation.” Carbon dioxide pollution is generated by burning fossil fuels for transportation and electrical generation, by cement manufacturing, deforestation, agriculture and many other practices. Along with other greenhouse gases, CO2 traps heat radiating from the planet’s surface that would otherwise escape into space, causing the planet’s atmosphere to warm steadily, which unleashes a cascade of weather impacts, including episodes of extreme heat, drought and wildfire activity, as well as heavier precipitation, flooding and tropical storm activity. Impacts to the world’s oceans from greenhouse gas pollution include increasing sea surface temperature, rising sea levels, and an increased absorption of carbon, which makes seawater more acidic, leads to ocean deoxygenation, and makes it more difficult for some marine organisms to survive. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels were consistently around 280 ppm for almost 6 000 years of human civilisation. Since then, humans have generated an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 pollution much of which will continue to warm the atmosphere for thousands of years. Temperature rises must slow down if we want to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, according to climate scientists. They say global warming needs to be kept to 1.5 degree Celsius by 2100. Over the past three years, climate scientists have shifted the definition of what they believe is the ‘’safe’’ limit of climate change. However, unless further action is taken, the planet could still warm by more than two degrees Celsius by then. A 2021 report by the independent climate action Tracker group calculated that the world was heading for 2.4 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.
If nothing is done, scientists think global warming could exceed four degrees Celsius in the future, leading to devastating heatwaves, millions losing their homes to rising sea levels, and the irreversible loss of plant and animal species. The concept of a four-degree world is essentially a tool, used to illustrate what could happen if countries don’t step up current ambitions to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
And it’s becoming increasingly plausible.
New reports highlight that emissions are higher than ever, current pledges to mitigate climate change aren’t doing enough, and the gap between what’s needed and what’s being done continues to widen. Extreme weather events are already more intense across the globe, threatening lives and livelihoods, more especially in Africa particular in Namibia we can feel it and see it now. Scientists say this will continue whilst humans keep releasing planet-warming greenhouse gases. For example, a record-breaking heatwave across Spain, Portugal and northwest Africa in April was made at least 100 times more likely by climate change, according to the World Weather Attribution network (WWA).
With further warming, some regions could become uninhabitable, as farmland turns into desert. East Africa just saw its fifth season of failed rains, which the United Nations’ World Food Programme says has put up to 22 million people at risk of severe hunger. Extreme temperatures can also increase the risk of wildfires – as seen in Europe last summer. France and Germany recorded about seven times more land burnt between January and the middle of July 2022, compared with the average. Hotter temperatures also mean that previously frozen ground will melt in places like Siberia, releasing greenhouse gases trapped for centuries into the atmosphere, further worsening climate change. In other regions, extreme rainfall caused historic flooding previous year – as seen in China, Pakistan and Nigeria.
In conclusion, people living in developing countries are expected to suffer the most as they have fewer resources to adapt to climate change. But there is frustration from these nations as they have produced the least greenhouse gas emissions.
*Dr Moses Amweelo is a former minister of works, transport and communication. He earned a doctorate in Technical Science, Industrial Engineering and Management from the International Transport Academy (St Petersburg, Russia).