As Namibia nears the national and presidential elections, early postal voting results suggest a tight contest that could mark a pivotal moment in the country’s political trajectory. The Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), a relatively new player in the political arena, has emerged as a serious challenger to the ruling Swapo party. 

This development mirrors a regional trend, where long-established ruling parties, including Zambia’s Patriotic Front and the Botswana Democratic Party, have lost ground to rising opposition forces.

Reading the postal votes

Provisional postal votes reveal a narrowing gap between IPC and Swapo, with IPC securing 2 682 parliamentary votes to Swapo’s 5 904, as well as 3 006 presidential votes to Swapo’s 5 637. 

Although these results represent only a small segment of the electorate, they highlight growing dissatisfaction with the status quo, especially among public servants and expatriates. 

Traditionally supportive of the ruling party, these voters are now gravitating toward IPC, likely due to economic hardship and scandals like the fishrot. Public sentiment also shows a worrying decline in trust towards Swapo.  From 2014 to 2021, the proportion of Namibians who trust Swapo ‘a lot’ has dropped from 42% to just 17%.  Similarly, trust in the president and prime minister has decreased. These findings underscore a significant shift in public opinion, with increasing disillusionment toward Swapo’s leadership, exacerbated by economic pressures and governance issues.

A difficult economic backdrop

Namibia’s economy faces significant challenges, including high unemployment, inequality and fiscal pressures.  The fishrot scandal, which implicated senior Swapo officials in a multimillion-dollar fishing quota scheme, has further strained public trust.  Economic stagnation, coupled with governance and transparency issues, has fuelled discontent among voters. Afrobarometer surveys reveal that unemployment and corruption dominate Namibians’ concerns, with 76% believing the country is heading in the wrong direction, and two-thirds rating the economy as ‘fairly bad’ or ‘very bad’. 

This dissatisfaction has driven a shift in voter sentiment, with growing support for opposition parties like IPC, who promise greater accountability and equitable governance.

Confidence in elections, doubts about the ECN

There is growing scepticism about the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN). Survey results show that while 74% of Namibians support open and honest elections, only 45% trust the ECN, a significant drop from 74% in 2014. 

Concerns over the 2019 elections, including issues with electronic voting machines and campaign financing, have already led to doubts about electoral integrity. 

With the return to manual ballots and voter re-registration for the 2024 elections, trust in the ECN has declined further, raising concerns of disenfranchisement, especially among rural and older voters. 

This situation provides opposition parties like IPC and the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) an opportunity to challenge Swapo’s dominance, making the 27 November election a critical litmus test for Namibia’s democratic health.

The rise of IPC and fall of revolutionary parties

The rapid rise of the IPC mirrors a regional trend, where opposition parties are capitalising on voter discontent. Much like Zambia’s United Party for National Development (UPND) and Botswana’s opposition, Umbrella for Democratic Change coalition, the IPC has positioned itself as a credible alternative to long-dominant ruling parties.  In Mauritius, the ruling party’s poor electoral performance, which saw it fail to win a single seat, further demonstrates how quickly long-established parties can lose relevance when governance and service delivery become the electorate’s priorities. 

Across the region, liberation movements are losing support due to growing frustrations with corruption and poor governance. 

In South Africa, the African National Congress has been forced into a government of national unity after its support fell to record lows.

In Mozambique, Frelimo faces political and economic crises, compounded by allegations of election manipulation in the October 2023 polls.  These shifts highlight a broader regional movement away from the traditional dominance of liberation parties.  Namibians, having witnessed the possibility of ousting a liberation movement, now see this as their opportunity to push for change.  As such, Swapo must prove it can still deliver for the people.

Kamala Harris’ loss and its ripple effect on Swapo’s female candidate

Harris loss in the recent US presidential election could also impact Swapo’s first female presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Had Harris won, it would have reinforced the message that ‘it’s time for a woman’ in leadership, boosting hope for women leaders worldwide, including Nandi-Ndaitwah. 

Her victory could have inspired Namibian voters and given momentum to Swapo’s campaign. 

However, Harris’ loss could dampen that enthusiasm, making it harder for Nandi-Ndaitwah to benefit from the global push for women in leadership. 

As a result, her campaign will need to work harder to connect with voters by focusing on Namibia’s pressing issues.

What the data is saying?

The numbers tell an interesting story. In the 2019 elections, Swapo secured 62.79% of the vote. But recent data shows a 19.59% decline in their support. If this trend continues, Swapo could receive only 354 338 votes, assuming voter turnout stays the same. 

At the same time, voter registration has increased by 12.7%, signalling a desire for change that likely benefits opposition parties like IPC.  This shift could push IPC’s vote share to 62.45%, giving them a strong chance of winning both the presidential and parliamentary elections. This will mark a major political shift in Namibia.

What lies ahead for Swapo?

For the ruling Swapo, the writing is on the wall. The party must confront its vulnerabilities by addressing corruption, reconnecting with its grassroots base, and offering tangible solutions to Namibia’s economic challenges. 

Its liberation struggle credentials, while significant, may not be enough in an election, increasingly shaped by economic issues and voter frustration. As Namibians head to the polls, the stakes are higher than ever. The outcome will not only determine Swapo’s future but also signal whether Namibia will follow the regional trend of rejecting liberation movements in favour of change. Can Swapo adapt to this new reality, or will it join the growing list of revolutionary parties forced to relinquish power? The answer lies with the voters.

Nyasha Mcbride Mpani is the Project Lead for the Data for Governance Alliance at the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation in Cape Town, South Africa.