Sacky Elago
The recent expulsion of former Swakopmund constituency councillor Ciske Smith-Howard from the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) has prompted the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) to act on the Regional Councils Act, section 10 (3), which states that when a member nominated by a political party ceases to be a member of such party, he/she warrants vacation from such office, and elections are to be held exactly 90 days after it has occurred.
In light of the preceding sequence of events, the ECN has declared by-elections in the Swakopmund constituency for August 2022, and several political parties are vying for control of the constituency.
Swapo, the ruling party, is attempting to reclaim a constituency it has held since independence but lost to the IPC in the 2020 regional and local government elections.
The Independent Patriots for Change, on the other hand, are hoping to retain the constituency in which their candidate Smith-Howard triumphed with a resounding victory of 5 688 votes, while her Swapo Party counterpart Phillipus Munenguni fell short with 3 260 votes in those elections.
Political analysts predict a tight race in the Swakopmund constituency between the ruling party Swapo and the newly-established IPC, of course not ruling out the possibility of Smith-Howard running as an independent candidate.
With the IPC recently facing numerous resignations and public criticism for the lack of internal democracy within the party settings, it is highly doubtful that they will have the same impact as at the polls in 2020. Furthermore, while many Independent Patriots for Change voters are supporters and sympathisers drawn to the party in search of change from the current regime, Swapo voters are members who have been supporting the party for extended periods of time, and remain committed to voting for the party, despite its flaws.
By-election voter turnouts are expected to be significantly lower than in previous elections, which may benefit the more popular party, in this case Swapo.
Opposition parties like the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP) and the National Unity Democratic Organisation (Nudo) have recently announced plans to form coalitions ahead of the 2024 National Assembly and presidential elections.
Although coalitions are new to the Namibian political scene, we have seen glimpses of them, most notably in Windhoek, where the AR, IPC, NUDO and the PDM formed a coalition that lasted less than nine months.
Coalitions necessitate enormous compromises from all parties involved in the agreement. Such compromises may entail putting aside political ideologies, prioritising effective communication, deferring some party goals, and, most importantly, suppressing individual egos.
Everyone is wondering whether the opposition’s coalition talks are genuine, or merely rhetorical statements intended to garner votes for the opposition parties. Nonetheless, there is no better opportunity or timing for opposition parties to demonstrate their commitment to forming a progressive coalition than the upcoming regional council by-elections. After all, as a wise man once said “you will not be able to share when you have more if you cannot share the little you have now.” The ball is now in the opposing parties’ court.