WINDHOEK – Weather forcasters yesterday poured cold water on rain expectations based on a recent regional forecast that the country could receive normal to above normal rainfall this year.
Officials of the Namibia Meteorological Services (NMS) announced in Windhoek yesterday that the country could experience another dismal rainy season. In announcing this, deputy director of meteorological services in the Ministry of Works and Transport, Franz /Uirab, acknowledged that signals for an adequate outlook were still too weak, and urged farmers to wait until October when an updated forecast would be made available.
Verifying the outlook for 2012/13, and giving a glimpse of what can be expected from the weather in the months ahead, meteorologist Isabella Kapolo of the NMS said the safest prediction right now would be to forecast normal (for the greater part of the country) to above normal (for the north-eastern parts) rainfall for the periods October/November/December and December/January and February 2014. She warned that nothing is written in stone when it comes to medium and long-term rainfall forecasts, promising that monthly updates in the coming weeks would provide a better indication of what to expect from the skies. She warned that Namibia is in exactly the same position as last year this time when a neutral situation was experienced regarding the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which resulted in the driest drought in Namibia in 30 years.
According to her outlook, only some distinct areas in the north-east of Namibia can expect above normal rainfall starting in October this year to the end of February next year. The western coastal areas and the deeper southern parts are likely to experience normal and even below normal rainfall.
Admitting that last year’s official outlook for Namibia was way off the mark, she blamed it on the presence of tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean areas that prolonged dry spells in January, February and March this year. “There are no guarantees at this early stage that we could not be faced with the same predictions,” she said.
At yesterday’s stakeholder meeting, confusion and apprehension about the approaching rainy season deepened when it transpired that Namibia’s own national outlook differs vastly from the optimistic forecast released last week by the annual SADC Regional Climate Outlook Forum in Harare.
The SADC forum predicted normal to above normal rainfall for the greater parts of Namibia in October to December and above normal rainfall as from December to February next year.
Commenting on this, /Uirab said the Namibian outlook for each rainy season is carried out in collaboration with renowned international experts, and the report must be regarded as truly Namibian and as the bona fide national forecast. He stressed that Namibia’s own predictions are based on reliable data of at least the past thirty years, and that data from 104 weather stations around the country are used to make the forecast for October 2013 up to February 2014.
“The national outlook for Namibia is a very sensitive issue as it has political and socio-economic implications. The signals are way too weak in September to predict accurately, and we will only be able to do so in October, and from there on update it on a monthly basis,” he stressed.
By Deon Schlechter
According to Kapolo below normal to normal rains can expected from October to December this year, with normal rainfall from December to January next year and thereafter normal to above normal until the end of February.