As the country braces for today’s tabling of the 2026/27 national budget, all eyes are on Finance Minister Ericah Shafudah.

For citizens and businesses alike, key signals to watch include possible tax reforms, cost-of-living measures, infrastructure allocations and the overall fiscal stance.

With a rising debt-to-GDP ratio, escalating debt-servicing costs, ambitious revenue projections and growing subsidies to underperforming state-owned enterprises, analysts warn that sustainability remains under pressure.

Ultimately, the budget will reveal whether government is prioritising growth, consolidation or attempting a delicate balancing act. In a constrained fiscal environment, every allocation is a policy choice — and every borrowing decision shifts the burden either to today’s taxpayers or future generations.

As Namibia confronts slowing revenue growth and mounting debt pressures, today’s budget is expected to signal whether government has a credible plan to stimulate investment and translate headline promises into measurable economic progress.

Beyond the speech

Economist Mally Likukela says that while many citizens focus on headline issues — such as whether income taxes will change, fuel prices will ease or spending on jobs and infrastructure will increase — the deeper signals lie in the numbers.

He argues that the detailed expenditure estimates, development allocations and debt projections will determine whether government is truly addressing Namibia’s “bread-and-butter” crisis of high unemployment, weak growth, poverty and inequality.

Likukela explained that the budget speech forms part of a broader fiscal package and marks the start of a parliamentary approval process before the Appropriation Bill is signed into law. While the speech highlights priorities and tax proposals, the real test lies in aggregate figures — total revenue, total expenditure, the fiscal deficit and public debt levels.

“The budget statement marks the beginning of the budget approval process to obtain Parliament’s approval before the Appropriation Bill is signed into law. The speech primarily serves as the official, public-facing summary of the government’s financial plan for the upcoming financial year,” he said.

Call for certainty

At a recent pre-budget dialogue in Windhoek, hosted by Capricorn Group in collaboration with the Economic Association of Namibia (EAN), the Hanns Seidel Foundation Namibia and High Economic Intelligence (HEI), leading economists called for policy clarity and fiscal discipline.

“Investors want certainty. They don’t want to hang mid-air,” said HEI Managing Director Salomo Hei, warning that policy uncertainty could deter investment.

Hei described Namibia’s recent oil discoveries as a unique opportunity, but stressed that inclusive growth must remain a priority. He also flagged the proposed Namibia Investment Promotion and Facilitation Bill — set to replace the 1999 Foreign Investment Act — as a critical signal to investors.

Standard Bank economist Helena Mboti argued that tight fiscal space should not paralyse strategic spending.

“The fiscal space is very tight, but we must spend,” she said, urging government to prioritise education and entrepreneurship to tackle youth unemployment. “The country needs more CEOs and not more interns.”

Walking a tightrope

EAN deputy chairperson Jesaya Hano-Oshike raised concerns about poor capital project implementation, noting that underspending on development projects undermines growth ambitions. Development expenditure was already cut from N$9.6 billion to N$8.8 billion at mid-year, with funds shifted towards operational costs.

Capricorn Asset Management chief economist Floris Bergh cautioned that Namibia faces tightening capital market conditions.

“We have to strike a trade-off between fiscal sustainability and the big promises and plans that sound very good,” he said, urging government to align ambitions with available resources.

Independent economist Josef Sheehama said the national budget must align with Namibia’s Vision 2030 objectives, focusing on inclusive growth, poverty reduction and economic resilience.

“Managing cost-of-living pressures, expanding employment opportunities and strengthening productive sectors will determine whether recent macroeconomic gains translate into improved living standards. Fiscal discipline remains important, but discipline alone is insufficient. Strategic investment in agriculture, manufacturing, energy, rural infrastructure and human capital is essential to broaden the economic base,” Sheehama said. He added that Namibia stands at a pivotal juncture.

“While the foundations of stability have been laid, transformation requires decisive action. By carefully balancing prudence with purposeful investment, the upcoming budget can expand the employer base, stimulate sustainable growth and build a more inclusive and prosperous future for all citizens,” he said.

– ebrandt@nepc.com.na