Maihapa Ndjavera
The wholesale and retail trade sector is expected to recover to positive growth in 2020, after contractions during the preceding three years. Bank of Namibia projections show that the wholesale and retail sector is anticipated to grow by 1.4% and 1.5% during 2020 and 2021 respectively, from an estimated contraction of 2.5% in 2019.
The latest growth estimate is an improvement from a contraction of 5.7% forecasted during August 2019. The revision was informed by the latest data on turnover for wholesale and retail trade.
According to Bank of Namibia’s Director of Strategic Communications and Financial Sector Development Emma Haiyambo, during 2020, the tertiary industry is also expected to turn positive following three consecutive years of negative growth. These figures were included in the central bank’s February economic outlook.
“The tertiary industries are projected to grow by 1.4% and 2.0% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, compared to an estimated contraction of 0.4% in 2019. The expected recovery in 2020 will mainly be supported by improved growth rates for wholesale and retail trade and public health,” explained Haiyambo.
Last year the bank highlighted that growth for the wholesale and retail trade sector was projected to remain in the negative territory, however, this was lesser contraction when compared to the negative growth rates for the proceeding years.
The wholesale and retail trade sector was expected to contract further by 5.7% in 2019 and was initially expected to continue contracting to 0.1% in 2020.
Moreover, the bank said the economy at large is expected to recover this year, supported by better prospects in primary industries, wholesale and retail trade as well as construction.
“The domestic economy is projected to expand by 1.5% in 2020 and by 1.4% in 2021, representing a recovery from an estimated contraction of 1.9% in 2019. During 2020, growth is expected to be driven by recoveries in mining, wholesale & retail trade and in construction,” explained Haiyambo.
-mndjavera@nepc.com.na