WINDHOEK – Namibian crop- and livestock farmers are bracing themselves for a considerable impact on their cereal production and deterioration of rangelands.
The latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is warning about a 70 percent chance of an El Niño developing by the end of this year. “Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest an imminent warming of the tropical Pacific reaching a weak El Niño level by late November. The chance of El Niño is about 70 percent, with uncertain strength, as model predictions range from ENSO-neutral to a moderate strength El Niño,” reads the outlook released by WMO as thousands of Namibian crop farmers in rain-fed areas are preparing for the planting season.
This is also confirmed by the latest forecasts from the South African Weather Service (SAWS), indicating that over the next few weeks, sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean will become warmer than normal. This means the area is going into an El Niño phase, which will peak toward the end of this year. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It has a major influence on weather patterns over many parts of the world, especially Southern Africa.
“Climate change is influencing the traditional dynamics of El Niño and La Niña events as well as their impacts. This year started out with a weak La Niña event but its cooling effect was not enough to reduce the overall warming trend which means that this year is on track to be one of the warmest on record,” media quoted WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas as saying. While WMO does not expect El Niño to be as powerful as that of 2015-2016, it will still have a considerable impact. Above-normal surface temperature is forecast in almost the entire Asia-Pacific region, Europe, North America, Africa and much of coastal South America.
While El Niño occurs every five to seven years, this forecast, if it comes true, would mean two such events occurring within a span of two years. It hints at the influence of climate change. The South African Weather Service predicts that El Niño is “highly likely” to hit South Africa towards the end of 2018. For two months in a row now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an El Niño watch meaning all eyes are open and forecasts thus far are looking favourable for an El Niño to develop again later this year. So with three El Niño Watches having been issued in June, July and August, all eyes are open and awaiting ENSO updates from NOAA and the IRI.