WINDHOEK – Private farms in Namibia today hold half the number of livestock that they did in the 1950s.
National meat production is in decline and the livestock industry as a whole is in a crisis situation as a result of a declining resource base, says Colin Nott, local rangeland expert who was part of the Millennium Challenge Account Namibia’s programme, implementing Community Based Rangeland and Livestock Management policy.Nott told Farmers’ Forum in that while tension is building between scientists and farmers as to whether the current dry spell is a natural phenomenon caused by our low rainfall and variable climate or whether the drought is man induced, both arguments are valid. But more importantly, these arguments can be avoided by not declaring a drought but by declaring a fodder shortage. “What perennial grasses in particular need to flourish is simple – but we are failing at a national level to provide them with a conducive environment for their productivity to be expressed. It could be said that we are doing almost everything we can to ensure perennial grass plants (the basis of a healthy livestock industry) have no future in Namibia as a whole. Should this trend be allowed to continue, the country will face unprecedented social and political problems,” he notes.
Nott says we can estimate how much grass we have, we know how many animals we have and we know how much grass/fodder an animal eats per day. We know we still need to feed the soil if we are to improve the resource base, so we need to budget to leave over soil cover. We can then calculate how many animals we can carry until we can next reliably expect rain once more. “Livestock management on both communal and private lands has for the last 50 to 100 years been very poor. This has resulted in a loss of perennial grass plants, bush encroachment and drastically reduced carrying capacity for domestic livestock over the medium to long term. The Namibian Rangeland Management Policy and Strategy of the MAWF (Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry) lays down the management principles that farmers must apply that will ensure that: the soil microbes are fed over time, fodder plants are given enough time to recover or rest between grazing intervals, that the water cycle is improved to ensure the little rain we receive is utilised effectively. If these principles are applied we will over time produce more fodder and be able to hold more livestock over time. We will also once more be more drought resistant and be able to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.
The main contributors to the declining resource base are:
- The failure to apply appropriate management of rangeland in the context of a variable climate. The policies and practises promoted over the last 100 years originate in the wetter, more predictable climates of the world which lends itself to fixed stocking rates and fixed rotations. In our variable climates these approaches are a recipe for disaster. A full process needs to be engaged upon to implement the innovations in the NRMPS.
- In the communal areas farmers need to be able to define areas where management can be applied and rules enforced. Without group or individual tenure rangeland management plans cannot be developed and enforced.
- The marketing system of Namibia is also poorly adapted to a variable climate, and poor marketing is one of the main contributors to poor rangeland management. In ‘good’ rainfall years we have a fodder excess and our markets behave the same as those of the wetter climates – farmers sell animals when they have been fattened for a particular market and buyers compete for price over quality, etc. When a fodder shortage occurs, and especially when this occurs at a regional or national scale, we have a ‘drought year’ or a large scale fodder shortage relative to the number of livestock in the region or country. This is expected in a dry climate and if we are to manage our rangeland well, we need to remove animals from the land early to enable the remaining animals to produce through to when rain is next expected, whilst still improving the resource base. However, when everyone sells at once the market becomes flooded, storage facilities and feedlots become full and prices drop. Farmers are reluctant to sell and the resource base suffers, animals die and the individual, local and national economy suffers.
- The present situation is that late in the dry season when farmers get desperate, incentives are paid that re-inforce poor decision making that is not good for the rangeland, for animal production and for the market. When animals are lean, incentive payments are made and this encourages farmers to hold onto animals in the next fodder shortage and the poor decision making cycle is perpetuated.
- The livestock market must be able to absorb large numbers of animals when we have regional or national fodder shortage. For farmers who sell early, incentive payments must be made for livestock in good condition. A transition to no incentive payments to farmers who do not destock early, and whose livestock are in poor condition, as the fodder shortage was predictable in May of this season, should be taken. An incentive payment should also be considered for farmers who bring good quality animals onto the market late in the dry season, as they have managed their fodder availability and hopefully treated their rangelands appropriately. These incentives will be good for rangeland, the market and for animal production as cows are in good condition after the dry season and are more likely to conceive.
A number of fodder classes can be applied to a farm, a region or the country. Five possible classes are:
- Fodder excess, which means there is more grass than is needed to see the farmers with current livestock levels through to when rain can ‘reliably’ be expected. In this scenario restocking is possible and the farmer can focus on growing the herd and/or increasing production and quality as per the farmers’ production goals
- Not affected by fodder shortage – In this case the amount of fodder grown in this season is more or less the same as what is required to see the farmer through to the next season. Here it would be advisable to focus on increasing production per animal.
- Moderately affected by fodder shortage – Focus on maintenance of production per animal or reduce animal numbers marginally to allow good performance. Early removal (sale or move) is preferable.
- Severely affected by fodder shortage – In this case the amount of fodder available in May (or earlier if a drought is ‘predicted’) is significantly less than what is required to get this herd through to when rain can be reliably expected. Here the farmer should focus on the survival of core breeding unit and reduce numbers as soon as possible. Early removal (sale or move) of animals is vital.
- Extreme fodder shortage – Here the farmer has no choice but to focus on the survival of as many productive animals as possible. Early decision making here is also vital to ensure some animals survive, he concludes.