Dr Moses Amweelo
The region is already highly exposed to the effects of periodic warming of the Pacific or El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as the cold episode of ENSO or La Nina.
These cycles cause severe droughts and floods in the region. They are a major driver of climate variability, which is partly responsible for food insecurity.
The frequency of extreme weather will increase with climate change. Since the early 1980s, the frequency and intensity of ENSO episodes have increased. Cyclones and storm power have increased in the past 30 years.
Gradual warming has raised maximum temperatures, resulting in heat stress, and the increased frequency and intensity of climate events further impact the ability of communities, societies and economies to recover from shocks.
Parts of the region are already experiencing water scarcity. Increasing drying, warming and extreme weather events will make this worse.
Water scarcity (and in some cases water-related disasters, such as floods) have direct and indirect implications for food security, health and mobility of people, which, in turn, have implications for conflict potential.
Existing hotspots may extend over the next decades to the north-western parts of the southern African region into southern and central Angola, as well as parts of southern and western DRC.
This is due to low adaptive capacity in coping with climate change impacts in these areas. The Regional Climate Change Programme, however, identifies centres of resilience in the Congo Basin, eastern Angola and the border between Tanzania and Mozambique.
Stable and humid environments, for instance, mean lower climate change impacts in the Congo Basin, extending into eastern Angola.
Across countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), there is wide variability in environmental and nutritional sensitivity, as well as the level of vulnerability due to exposure to climate change impacts.
A heavy reliance on dry-land farming, large rural population, low economic diversification and poor infrastructure exacerbate the challenges and vulnerability.
However, SADC countries also vary greatly in their capacity for adaptation to climate change. Adaptation planning should be as spatially explicit as possible. The Regional Climate Change Programme (RCCP) focuses on adaptation capacity and poverty reduction.
Southern Africa is already experiencing rainfall variability and high temperatures. Currently, countries that are most at risk of climate stress are Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana and parts of Namibia, Angola, Zambia and Swaziland.
Thus, the greatest exposure to climate risk is broadly between 12 degrees Celsius South and 25 degrees Celsius South latitudinal band.
The eastern seaboard of southern Africa and the island states are exposed to cyclones and floods. Arid and semi-arid regions in the west are prone to climate risk, mainly periodic droughts and the risk of flash floods.
The northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern and south-eastern South Africa, part of south-east Tanzania, north-west Tanzania and the south-east corner of Madagascar are least exposed to climate risk.
The past and current experience of climate stress in southern Africa is unlikely to change drastically in the near future.
Countries that have experienced the greatest number of droughts, floods and storms over the last century are likely to be exposed to the same events in the forthcoming four decades, although increases in exposure could emerge elsewhere too.
When vulnerability is considered, the arid and semi-arid regions exposed to periodic droughts fare better than the rest.
South Africa, Botswana and Namibia form a major block of socio-economically stronger countries in the southwest: their infrastructure and more diversified economies give them a measure of resistance and resilience.
Similarly, Mauritius also has a high adaptive capacity.
Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe are intermediate, whereas the DRC, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Tanzania and Malawi all have weaker socio-economic conditions and, thus, limited capacity to adapt to climate change impacts.
When the vulnerability aspects are projected to 2050, hotspots are evident in the high exposure and lower adaptive capacity areas in southern and central Angola, as well as parts of western DRC.
Central eastern regions covering southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, southern and central Mozambique remain hotspots.
The big question is water scarcity: there is increased recognition at a policy level of the potential threat to peace and security posed by water scarcity.
The Africa Climate and Development Agenda Statement of the African Ministerial Council on Water (AMCOW) incorporates security risks into the region’s approach to water and climate change.
The SADC regional climate change responses factor in climate change has an impact on regional human security.
Most of southern Africa’s renewable water is found in shared transboundary river basins. In such cases, given the scarcity of water in the region, the pursuit of individual national interests can act as a conflict threat.
On the other hand, transboundary water resources management that builds on relationships can lead to inter-state cooperation.
Water is already scarce in the southwestern regions of Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Under climate change scenarios of reduced precipitation, these drier regions are likely to spread, ultimately including countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe and southern Angola.
Extreme dry events in the Kalahari could result in the eastward and northward encroachment of the Kalahari Desert.
Even areas currently not suffering from water scarcity are at risk of per capita water scarcity, as future climate, population and development pressures result in greater demand for decreasing freshwater resources.
Water scarcity threatens security at various levels – human and political. Water-related human security issues manifest themselves through conflicts at individual and household levels, as well as intra- and inter-village levels.
Household, intra- and inter-village conflicts happen when water resources are not adequate to meet the basic hygiene, drinking, food production and livestock watering needs.
Human uses may also compete with livestock uses, and politically related conflicts may be amplified by water scarcity.
For example, the Matabeleland region of Zimbabwe is regarded as a conflict flash point if water scarcity is not resolved.
* Dr Moses Amweelo is a former minister of Works, Transport and Communication. He earned a doctorate in Technical Science, Industrial Engineering and Management from the International Transport Academy (St. Petersburg, Russia).