Dr Moses
Amweelo
Extreme weather has resulted in trillions of dollars of economic damage in the last half-century, but the human death toll has fallen dramatically.
The economic cost of floods, storms and wildfires has accelerated since 1970, according to a World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report.
Better early warning systems and disaster management in developing countries mean fewer people are dying.
These elements caused 22 608 deaths between 2019 and 2021, fewer than in earlier years. Extreme weather is becoming more frequent and more intense in many places because of climate change.
Scientists say this will continue while humans keep releasing planet-warming greenhouse gases. Even a small increase in average temperatures makes a big difference. This is because the whole distribution of daily temperatures shifts to warmer levels, making hotter days more likely and more extreme.
Scientists use computer simulations to predict extreme weather events say these have been made more likely by warming caused by humans.
Two million people have died in extreme weather-related events since 1970, according to the WMO. The cost of damage from these events has increased by a factor of eight since the 1970s and now totals US$4.3 trillion, the new data from the United Nations climate and weather body shows. Lower death tolls have nothing to do with such events becoming less frequent or severe.
The number of weather-related disasters has increased five-fold over the same period, according to the WMO. Developing countries that have seen improvements in measures to protect human life are home to the populations most vulnerable to such disasters, says the World Meteorological Organisation.
It wants high-quality early warnings of impending disasters to reach everyone on the planet by the end of 2027 and it is hoping to accelerate the establishment of these systems during the World Meteorological Conference which recently begins in Geneva.
The WMO reports 11 778 disasters between 1970 and 2021 in its updated Atlas of Mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes.
Nine out of 10 of the two million deaths from those disasters were in developing countries.
“The most vulnerable communities, unfortunately, bear the brunt of weather, climate and water-related hazards,” said WMO secretary general professor Petteri Taalas.
He used the example of Cyclone Mocha, the tropical storm which hit parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh and caused widespread destruction, impacting some of the poorest communities.
At least 800 000 people are reported needing emergency food aid and other assistance, but the number of people killed is currently estimated to have been less than 200.
In the past such a storm would have caused death tolls of tens or even hundreds of thousands of people, said Taalas.
“Thanks to early warnings and disaster management these catastrophic mortality rates are now thankfully history,” he said “Early warnings save lives.”
The greatest financial losses were in developed countries, with the United States leading the pack. Weather and climate-related disasters cost the US an estimated US$1.7 trillion or 39% of the global total over the last 51 years.
However, the least developed countries and small island states suffered much higher costs concerning the size of their economies, the WMO said. Asia accounted for 47% of all reported deaths worldwide – nearly one million – with tropical cyclones being the leading cause.
Bangladesh had the highest death toll in Asia since 1970 with 520 758, attributed to 281 disasters.
In Europe, 166 492 people were killed in 1 784 disasters, accounting for 8% of reported deaths worldwide. Extreme temperatures were the leading cause of reported deaths and floods were the leading cause of economic losses.
Extreme rainfall and flooding have also hit other regions, including West Africa between May and October 2022, and New Zealand in February 2023. Over two million people have been killed and the world has suffered economic damages amounting to many trillion US dollars in the past almost 100 years from extreme weather events and climate change-related catastrophes.
The WMO, in an updated report, has said that as the world continues to reel under the impact of climate change, enhancements in early warning have helped reduce the human toll.
The agency looked at nearly 12 000 extreme weather, climate, and water-related events over the past half-century to estimate the damages and loss of lives. The report was released at WMO’s four-yearly congress among member countries, pressing the message that more needs to be done to improve alert systems for extreme weather events.
The Geneva-based agency has repeatedly warned about the impact of man-made climate change, saying rising temperatures have increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather – including floods, hurricanes, cyclones, heat waves, and drought.
*Dr Moses Amweelo is a former minister of works, transport and communication. He earned a doctorate in Technical Science, Industrial Engineering and Management from the International Transport Academy (St Petersburg, Russia).