Opinion – GDP needs to grow at 8.50% in next five years to halt unemployment

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Opinion –  GDP needs to grow at 8.50% in next five years to halt unemployment

Josef Kefas Sheehama

We need to be less wasteful. We need to economise our resources. The sooner we start tackling it, the better.

The Namibian economy has experienced stagnation, which has put a strain on the effort to tackle the historical structural inequalities, unemployment and poverty. Furthermore, there should be substantial structural change in the economy that would unlock growth and allow for development. Many people lost their jobs, many have gone without income for extended periods, and many are going hungry every day. Inequality is expected to widen, and poverty to deepen. 

Given the extent of the devastation, the economic response required should match or even surpass the scale of the disruption caused. Namibia, like other emerging markets, has a critical need to attract foreign investment, while at the same time driving economic transformation. Infrastructure investment, delivery and maintenance will play a leading role in Namibia’s economic stimulation.

There is a need for leaders to see the value in creating an enabling environment for young people to tap into blue and green economic pathways to drive sustainable development and create jobs. Economic reforms, together with structural and technological change, are bringing about new business opportunities, and with them a demand for new skills. This is an opportunity to provide youth with quick and affordable reskilling and upskilling opportunities while also building the long-term data infrastructure needed to expand the number of valuable credential pathways available in Namibia. 

Namibia’s economic policy includes developing a better-educated and more skilled workforce, enhancing competition, promoting innovation, halting and reversing de-industrialisation, diversifying the economy into new sectors, building strong relations with other emerging economies and boosting intra-regional trade. The hope is that such broad-based industrialisation will promote employment growth and increase the participation of historically disadvantaged people and marginalised regions in the mainstream economy. 

Addressing the problem of chronic unemployment and the recent decline in the country’s industrial and manufacturing capacity has plans that outline cross-cutting actions that are crucial for industrial development, such as industrial financing schemes and skills development programmes, and pinpoint sectors which are to be promoted through targeted support for investment, infrastructure and industrial upgrading.

Furthermore, we should focus on increasing investments, improving productivity, education and health outcomes, creating jobs, raising agricultural productivity, maintaining macroeconomic stability and managing global mega trends as well as improving governance. Policies that undermine property rights must also be rolled back, while the government will have to rethink its attitude to business, the role of markets and the size of the state. The willing-buyer, willing-seller principle has not delivered results, and the Second National Land Conference had calls to intensify implementing an accelerated land delivery method. 

Land reform is important from the social and economic viewpoints. From the social point of view, the redistribution of land and the creation of small farms is important for promoting not only equity or distributive justice, but also for increasing the efficiency and productivity of agriculture. The rural poor constitute a significant segment of the population. The inverse relationship between farm size and productivity implies that land reforms could raise productivity by breaking less productive large farms into several more productive small farms. 

In order to create and shape technologies, government must be armed with the intelligence necessary to envision and enact bold policies. I expect new technologies, expectations, policies, stakeholders and even physical workspaces to all play into a new way of transforming the traditional public sector, and these disruptive innovation accelerators could possibly have the most long-term potential to impact human culture overall. 

Previous technological revolutions occurred because governments undertook bold missions that focused, not on minimising government failure, but on maximising innovation. Introducing technology means that the work conditions are changed, and the environment is modified. Therefore, existing policies, practices and regulations may need to be updated or even created, and revisiting current policies to make certain that they are still valid and appropriate for the new environment is critical.  

The rise in agricultural output and income can expand the market for the manufacturing sector, with the migration of surplus labour from agriculture to manufacturing. Manufacturing calls for re-industrialisation in the Namibian economy, based on improving performance through innovation, skills development and reduced input costs. This emphasis on skills applies across the economy, and will be a centrepiece of partnership with business and labour. 

Promoting the agriculture for development agenda requires fast-tracking the productivity of smallholder farming by supporting smallholder farmers to access land, farm inputs and post-harvest facilities. Agricultural productivity is an important factor in labour reallocation to other sectors of the economy. In this regard, promoting access to fertilisers, expanding irrigational facilities, promoting non-tillage farming and investing in agriculture are pivotal to promoting agricultural productivity that could help link agriculture to poverty and inequality reduction in Namibia.

Furthermore, improving government efficiency, accountability and responsiveness, controlling corruption and establishing ethical norms, making public administration more responsive, strengthening judicial institutions and decentralising government need to be implemented. All these measures have to be taken by the government as a step towards promoting good governance and ease of doing business, which strengthens corporate governance. 

And I am stressing on corporate governance because from what we have seen, there is still a need to stress on the corporate governance audit, and the role of various organisations to bring in more transparency and accountability, at the same time effectiveness in the system. Strengthening corporate governance policies and frameworks will help both existing and new companies access the capital they need.

To conclude, it is true that uncertainties in the global business ecosystem will send crippling headwinds towards Namibia. Inflation and supply chain disruptions will remain entrenched for some time. However, domestic demand and the desire of global businesses to look for more resilient and cost-effective investments and export destinations, among other factors, will help Namibia ride this tide of headwinds. The optimism about Namibia’s economic recovery, although slightly bruised, remains intact.