WINDHOEK – Regional climate experts have forecast that the approaching rainy season, which starts in October, would be normal to wetter than normal in Namibia, and also in most countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.
The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) announced in Windhoek last week that from October 2014 to March 2015, SADC countries are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the period October to December 2014. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), northern Madagascar and Mauritius are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall. In the November-December 2014-January 2015 period, the bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while the greater part of DRC and northernmost Angola are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
The bulk of contiguous SADC and the island states are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during December 2014 to February 2015.
For the period January to March 2015, the bulk of SADC is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, the greater part of DRC, northernmost Angola and Mauritius are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
The rainy season is divided into overlapping three-month periods for the purposes of the forecast, and regional meteorologists foresee that most of Namibia – with the exception of the area along the country’s coast – will have a 35 percent probability of above-normal rainfall, a 40 percent chance of normal rainfall, and a 25 percent chance of below-normal rainfall over the three months from October to December.
Along Namibia’s coast, the probability of receiving an above-normal quantity of rain from October to December is 40 percent while the chance for a normal amount of rainfall over that area is 35 percent and the chance for below-normal rainfall is 25 percent.
From November to January and also from December to February, the forecast is that all of Namibia will have a 35 percent probability of above-normal rainfall, a 40 percent chance of normal rainfall, and a 25 percent chance of below-normal rainfall.
From January to March, the areas along the coastline and roughly the western half of the //Karas Region are expected to have a 40 percent chance of above-normal rainfall, 35 percent probability of normal rainfall, and a 25 percent chance of below-normal rainfall.
Over the rest of the country, there is also a 35 percent probability of above-normal rainfall, a 40 percent chance of normal rainfall, and a 25 percent chance of below-normal rainfall from January to March. Ocean surface temperatures were one of the factors taken into account by the climate scientists who compiled the seasonal forecast, SADC Climate Services Centre coordinator Bradwell Garanganga said.
According to him, the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are near neutral at the moment, after these temperatures had appeared to be rising a few months ago.
If the ocean surface temperatures in that part of the Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels, an El Niño event occurs, with global weather patterns affected as a result.
In southern Africa, El Niño usually signifies drought or a below-normal rainy season.