When Namibia signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement in July 2018, ratified it in January 2019, and deposited its instruments with the African Union Commission shortly thereafter, it signalled more than compliance with a continental ambition.
It signalled Namibia’s belief in Africa as a viable market for domestic enterprises.
Several years later, the question is no longer whether Namibia is committed to integration but whether our businesses are prepared to compete on a continental scale.
In this regard, when the Ministry of International Relations and Trade last week stated that the government cannot and should not dictate what exporters trade, they were 100% correct. Markets, not ministries, ultimately determine product viability. What is clear, however, is that value addition is not merely encouraged by the State – it is policy. This tension, between market freedom and developmental intent, lies at the heart of Namibia’s AfCFTA moment.
Namibia’s improved intra-African trade figures suggest progress, but this should not breed complacency.
A trade deficit of over N$60 billion signals domestic demand continues to be met largely by imports. Without stronger local production and value addition, preferential access may simply facilitate two-way trade without meaningful structural change. The AfCFTA is a historic opportunity, but opportunity alone does not industrialise an economy.
It must be seized with strategy, investment and urgency.
The next test for Namibia is to transform regional and African integration into industrialisation and market access into market power. Our export basket remains heavily weighted toward primary commodities like diamonds, uranium, gold, fish and copper.
These are vital revenue earners, but they are also emblematic of our traditional model of extract, export and repeat. Even with emerging growth in horticulture, we remain predominantly a supplier of raw or semi-processed goods.
The AfCFTA offers preferential access but does not guarantee competitiveness.
Products under AfCFTA’s Category A will see duties move to zero by 2031, with liberalisation stretching over a decade from 2021.
Yet, Deputy Minister of International Relations and Trade Jennely Matundu rightly pointed out that many Namibian traders may continue to operate under existing frameworks such as the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) or the Southern African Development Community (SADC), where zero duties already apply.
This exposes a deeper issue. If tariff elimination alone were the decisive factor, we would have already seen an export surge into neighbouring markets.
The barriers that truly constrain Namibian exporters are often structural, such as logistics costs, scale limitations, certification hurdles, access to finance and the ability to meet Rules of Origin requirements. The government correctly insists that it has created a sound trading environment and negotiated favourable market access.
It has also launched a National AfCFTA Implementation Strategy and Action Plan, calling for value addition in products such as meat, dairy, food and beverages, horticulture, cosmetics, textiles and leather. This strategy emphasises mineral beneficiation and downstream manufacturing instead of exporting raw concentrates.
While these ambitions are legitimate, ambition without industrial capacity risks becoming aspiration. The tough question we need to ask is whether Namibian companies are sufficiently capitalised, technologically equipped and regionally networked to move up the value chain? Encouraging exporters to trade value-added goods is easy, but building an ecosystem where they can do so competitively is not.
For example, mineral beneficiation, smelting and processing require energy reliability, skilled labour and large-scale investment. Namibia’s energy constraints and relatively small domestic market make such investments risky without regional production clusters or targeted incentives. The same applies to agro-processing and manufacturing, which, without scale and cost competitiveness, remains elusive.
In addition, services exports hold promise, as transportation, tourism, financial and communication services are areas where Namibia could leverage its stability and governance strengths.
Despite this potential, services liberalisation under the AfCFTA remains gradual, and domestic firms must still contend with stronger players from larger African economies.
The international relations and trade ministry is correct that the government is not the arbiter of which goods should be traded.
However, it is the architect of the environment in which trade decisions are made.
If we want exporters to pivot from raw commodities to finished goods, then industrial policy, infrastructure investment, skills development and financing mechanisms must align with that goal.
Equally, the private sector must shed any lingering dependence on preferential access as a crutch. Zero tariffs do not compensate for uncompetitive pricing or inconsistent quality.
This means that the AfCFTA is not a safety net but rather an open arena. – ebrandt@nepc.com.na