For some of the world’s leading nuclear physicists, it remains mind-boggling how Namibia, as one of the most significant uranium producers, is still stuck in a perpetual energy deficit that forces it to constantly import electricity from neighbouring countries. This is particularly concerning in light of the fact that at this week’s just-ended United Nations climate conference (COP28), more than 20 countries declared their intentions to triple their nuclear power capacities by 2050.
This development was spearheaded by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which officially called for accelerating the deployment of low-emission technologies, including nuclear energy, to help achieve global decarbonisation. Even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called this a historic milestone and a reflection of how much perspectives have changed. According to the IAEA, this demonstrates a global consensus on the need to scale up this clean and reliable technology for sustainable development.
The declaration made by more than 20 countries at COP28 on tripling nuclear capacity invited the World Bank, regional development banks and international financial institutions to include nuclear in their lending policies, while underscoring the need for secure supply chains to ramp up the deployment of these technologies. To achieve this ramping up of low-carbon nuclear power, these countries will need uranium, which is a natural resource Namibia has been blessed with in abundance. But what does Namibia do with this uranium? We export it to other countries for them to generate low-carbon electricity, of which none comes back to us.
The reason, according to government officials, is because Namibia lacks the expertise, the financing, the legislation and the industrial capacity to construct its own nuclear reactors. But the same physicists advocating for Namibia to use its endowed uranium natural resources argue that modern nuclear reactor technology has advanced to the extent that their construction basically compares to the erection of a low-tech coal-fired power station.
In fact, around the world, construction commenced on eight nuclear reactors last year, and six reactor connections were made to national grids. According to the World Nuclear Association, the total number of nuclear reactors under construction at the end of 2022 was 60, which is two more than at the end of 2021. Five of the reactors which started construction were in China, two in Egypt, and one in Turkey. This means these and other nations see the intrinsic value of nuclear reactors. So, why does Namibia remain hesitant to go nuclear and appear content with exporting its finite uranium resources?
In 2022, nuclear generation increased slightly in Asia, but there were minor decreases in South America and Africa. At the end of 2022, overall capacity of operable nuclear power plants increased minimally, while the total capacity of reactors which produced electricity in 2022 was marginally down from 2021. The total number of operable reactors at year-end 2022 was 437, up one from 2021. Just over 70% of all operable reactors are pressurised water reactors (PWRs), with all but two of the 36 reactors which started up between 2018 and 2022 being PWRs.
At the start of the just-ended COP28, the IAEA also called for active recognition and support for energy technology. The atomic energy agency stressed that resilient and robust nuclear power has the potential to play a wider role in the quest towards net zero carbon emissions, while ensuring the highest level of nuclear safety and security.
The agency outlook sees installed nuclear capacity more than doubling to 890 gigawatts by 2050, compared to 369 gigawatts today. This represents an almost 25% increase from the agency’s estimate in 2020, with its projections revised up for a third consecutive year.
In recent years, nuclear power has been included in several national or regional tax regimes on what qualifies as a sustainable investment. The time is now for Namibia to use what it already owns, and to stop propping up power-generation activities across the world.