Windhoek
South Africa, the main source of cereal imports for Namibia, did not receive enough rain during the planting season for summer crops from the beginning of November until the end of December 2015. This has lead to smaller areas being planted compared to previous years, as certain areas just did not receive any rain to justify the risk of planting.
Asked for his perspective on the unfolding grain situation from a South African point of view, Namib Mills CEO Ian Collard said the lack of rain was especially severe for the eastern parts of South Africa, which can only plant until the end of December.
“News came through of a devastating drought in northern KwaZulu-Natal, which wreaked havoc to the sugar harvest and animal welfare in that area. Mpumalanga received some rain during this period, which lead to plantings of maize. Unfortunately this was mostly yellow maize, as this region normally plants more yellow maize… should there be a bumper crop, it must be exported.
“The Free State did not receive any rain until the middle of January 2016. This is unfortunately too late for any more maize plantings. Should rains continue in the Free State, sunflower plantings will take place, due to the shorter growing season, before the first frost.
The Northwest Province can still plant until the middle of January. Planting unfortunately has been very slow, due to a lack of rain, as only about 20% had been planted. Should rain continue for the coming few weeks, it could increase the area planted with white maize, as this region can plant later.
The winter also comes a bit later to this area and expectations are that white maize will be planted pre-dominantly, which is normal and due to the current premium of the white maize price above yellow maize.
“Taking the above into account, expectations are that the available maize for the coming season to the region will still be under pressure, due to the smaller harvest of 2015, which will lead to very low stock levels before the 2016 harvest becomes available for usage.
The 2016 harvest was exposed to the drought and a harvest of only about 8 million tonnes is expected for white and yellow maize, compared to the norm of 12 million tonnes. A further negative effect is that the percentage of white maize to the total maize harvest will also reduce as the Free State, a white maize area, suffered a lot from the drought,” he explained.