The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) has raised critical concerns regarding the burgeoning green hydrogen sector in Namibia.
In its latest publication, IPPR research associate Frederico Links emphasised that while there has been significant excitement surrounding new developments, it is now time for a realistic and inclusive evaluation of the situation.
He pointed out that the initial hype surrounding green hydrogen needs to subside, allowing for a more honest discussion about its potential benefits and drawbacks.
All these points are contained in the second edition of the Green Hydrogen Monitor, which provides updates and insights on green hydrogen-related developments in Namibia. The edition was launched on Friday. He further questioned the credibility of job creation estimates associated with the green hydrogen projects, which suggest thousands of jobs to be generated by 2040. He argued that such figures are often thrown around without sufficient evidence to support them, and called for a fact-based dialogue regarding the actual impact on local communities.
He expressed scepticism about whether it is prudent to sacrifice protected natural areas for projects that remain largely untested, highlighting a need for transparency and accountability in the decision-making process.
“The hype needs to start simmering down now. It is time for an honest, open and inclusive assessment of what is happening on the green hydrogen landscape, for it is clear already that all is not as promised or promoted. We ask whether the potential job figures that are so loosely being tossed about will translate on the hard ground,” noted Links.
In the publication, economist Robin Sherbourne echoed these sentiments, noting many announced projects in Namibia do not include local manufacturing of essential components for the green hydrogen industry. This lack of local involvement raises doubts about whether the projected job numbers will materialise.
He emphasised that estimating job creation in an industry is still in its experimental phase, and is inherently uncertain.
He cautioned against overly optimistic projections based on opaque modelling exercises.
Furthermore, IPPR executive director, Graham Hopwood stressed the importance of applying high standards of governance from the outset of the green hydrogen initiatives. He pointed out that discussions at recent summits largely focused on business models and marketing strategies, while governance issues have received insufficient attention.
Given Namibia’s recent history with corruption scandals, such as the Fishrot scandal, he warned that neglecting governance risks could jeopardise both project viability and community benefits.
He outlined several risk factors currently facing Namibia’s green hydrogen projects: lack of transparency in project agreements, opaque processes related to financing and land access, inadequate community consultation and concerns over the selection of companies involved in projects, particularly those linked to politically exposed individuals.
He concluded that without addressing governance challenges, the potential benefits of green hydrogen projects may not be realised equitably across Namibia.
“By overlooking the corruption risks tied to green hydrogen, we set ourselves up for failure. Corruption isn’t a secondary concern. It poses a direct commercial risk, as it threatens the viability of both projects and businesses,” he said.