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NDP3 – The Road Ahead

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By Wezi Tjaronda WINDHOEK Namibia’s GDP growth, which exceeded its target of 4.3 percent by 0.4, is one of the many achievements the country has recorded during the National Development PlanÃÆ’Æ‘ÀÃ…ÃÆ”šÃ‚ 2 (2001-05). The growth, which reached 4.7 percent, also saw rapid expansion in secondary and tertiary industries. The other achievements cited in the Guidelines for Preparation of NDPÃÆ’Æ‘ÀÃ…ÃÆ”šÃ‚ 3 include good performance of private investments (Gross Fixed Capital Formation), decline in inflation, stable exchange rate, decline in the HIV prevalence, reduction in poverty, and also reduction in income inequality which is referred to as Gini coefficient. During the period income inequality (Gini coefficient) decreased from 0.7 in 1993 to 0.6 in 2003/4, the number of poor households was reduced from 38 percent to 28 percent from 1993/94 to 2003/4, while the HIV prevalence rate decreased from 22 percent in 2002 to 19.7 percent in 2004. The guidelines, which are posted on the National Planning Commission’s Web site, cite political stability, good governance, a committed government, macro-economic stability, good social and physical infrastructure and the availability of natural resources as the enabling factors that have led to the achievements. While expectations were that primary industries would grow by 6.7 percent, the actual growth was 3.8 percent. As for the secondary industries and tertiary, the growth of these sectors was 5.3 percent and 5.4 percent as opposed to targeted growth of 5.5 percent and 2.4 percent respectively. Contributing to the growth in the secondary industry were manufacturing and construction, both of which exceeded their expectations, while wholesale, transport, real estates, government products and others were responsible for the rapid growth in the tertiary industry. Whilst this is the case, agriculture and forestry, a sub-sector in which the majority of the poor people live, recorded minimal growth of 1.8 percent despite a targeted growth of 5.4 percent. Apart from this, the briefing guidelines also indicate that underperformance in development expenditure, larger budget deficit and higher debt, increased unemployment, persistent high level of rural poverty and HIV/AIDS prevalence which remains relatively high are challenges that need to be tackled. The unemployment rate grew from 33 percent in 2000 to 36.7 percent between 2003 and 2004 with rural unemployment accounting for 44.7 percent while urban unemployment stood at 29 percent between 2003 and 2004. From these achievements and shortcomings, lessons that the NPC says can be learned from NDPÃÆ’Æ‘ÀÃ…ÃÆ”šÃ‚ 2 include accelerated productivity in agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture, diversification of the rural economy from reliance on subsistence agriculture, rapid rural development, expansion of remunerative employment. There will also be need for better human resource and institutional capacity, improved co-ordination, stronger monitoring and evaluation and focus on results in addition to the expenditures and activities. The theme for NDPÃÆ’Æ‘ÀÃ…ÃÆ”šÃ‚ 3, which is under formulation, is “Accelerated economic growth through deepening rural development”. The key result areas of the plan include quality and social welfare, peace and political stability, productive and competitive human resources and institutions, competitive economy, quality of life, productive utilization of natural resources and environmental sustainability, knowledge-based and technology-driven national and regional, global stability and stability. Amongst the many cross-cutting issues that will be considered include disaster preparedness, employment creation, gender and development, poverty eradication and pro-poor interventions, marginalized and vulnerable groups integration, HIV/AIDS mitigation and human capital development.