More than six decades after the United States (US) first imposed an embargo on Cuba, the policy once dismissed as a Cold War relic has morphed into a grinding economic siege that Cuban officials now describe as existential, and regional leaders fear could destabilise the wider Caribbean.
In Windhoek this week, the Sam Nujoma Foundation described Cuba’s worsening conditions as a “man-made humanitarian crisis”, warning that intensified sanctions are threatening not just Havana’s economy, but the very survival of its people.
On the ground in Cuba, that crisis is visible in longer bread lines, petrol queues that snake around city blocks, public transport that runs sporadically, and neighbourhoods plunged into darkness for hours at a time.
At the centre of the latest US escalation is energy. What began in 1962 as a US trade embargo has evolved into a complex web of financial, commercial and secondary sanctions that reach deep into global banking and shipping systems. The squeeze tightened dramatically after a January raid that removed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro from power, abruptly cutting off heavily subsidised oil shipments from Venezuela, which was Cuba’s primary energy lifeline.
Without that supply, rolling blackouts have become routine. Factories halt mid-production. Government offices close early. Universities suspend classes, refrigerators fail and food spoils. Tourism, one of the island’s most important sources of foreign currency, is buckling under fuel shortages and operational instability.
Airlines have cancelled routes. Taxi drivers and hotel workers report fewer visitors and shrinking incomes.
Behind the macroeconomic indicators is falling productivity, dwindling foreign exchange reserves and rising inflation as households watch their purchasing power evaporate month by month.
Late last year, Cuba’s Ambassador to Namibia, Sergio Vigoa de la Uz, was blunt in his assessment. Speaking in Windhoek ahead of Havana’s annual appeal at the United Nations last October, he described the US embargo as a “silent genocide”.
“The blockade is illegal and inhumane. The main goal pursued by the US government has not changed, which is to suffocate our economy and provoke a social collapse,” he said.
De la Uz argued that the restrictions now extend far beyond simple trade prohibitions. Because Cuba is excluded from global financial systems such as SWIFT, even routine transactions become costly and complex.
“The mere fact that Cuba cannot access SWIFT penalises our country with millions of dollars just to find alternative routes to complete basic financial operations,” he said.
Cuba has attempted to translate the cost of sanctions into everyday comparisons: four months of losses, estimated at US$2.85 billion, could finance all the buses needed for the country’s public transport system. Two months of losses could cover annual fuel needs for electricity generation. Just 16 days of embargo-related losses, Havana claims, equal the funds required to supply essential medicines nationwide.
Whether one accepts Havana’s full accounting or not, the social strain is increasingly evident, from medicine shortages to delayed infrastructure upgrades and stalled renewable energy expansion. Under President Donald Trump, Washington has reinforced its hardline stance, tightened enforcement and signalling possible penalties for third countries that trade with Havana.
At a recent Caribbean Community summit in Saint Kitts and Nevis, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met regional leaders amid mounting unease about the spillover effects of Cuba’s deterioration. Some regional governments support Washington’s position against authoritarianism in the hemisphere, but have cautioned that economic collapse in Cuba will not remain contained within its borders.
-ebrandt@nepc.com.na