Dr Moses Amweelo
The past few weeks have been disastrous in East Africa, as heavy rains caused floods, leading to the loss of hundreds of lives, the displacement of thousands, and damage to property in these countries.
About 100 000 people have been displaced or otherwise affected in each country, with 32 reported deaths in Kenya and 58 in Tanzania, along with damage to farmland and infrastructure.
There are also fears that large areas of standing water could give rise to outbreaks of waterborne diseases. The Kenyan capital, Nairobi, has been particularly affected recently. The city usually records about 150mm of rain in April but has so far had an estimated 200-300mm, with some unofficial weather stations having reported much higher amounts. Flooding spread through the city, with people forced to take refuge on their roofs, where many slept overnight.
The increased rainfall is linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a periodic fluctuation in temperature across the Indian Ocean, similar to the better-known El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific. The IOD is now in a positive phase, during which warmer waters move into western parts of the ocean, accentuating rainfall in Eastern Africa.
This effect is further intensified when a positive IOD phase coincides with El Nino, as is now the case; a powerful El Nino event that began last June is concluding. Scientists from the World Weather Attribution Team said downpours in El Nino years such as this one had become 10–40% heavier in the region because of human-caused climate disruption, while a lack of natural drainage quickly turned roads into rivers.
“The heavy El Nino rains, accompanied by strong winds and flooding and landslides in various parts of the country, have caused adverse effects,” Majaliwa Weather said. El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern, typically associated with increased heat worldwide as well as drought and heavy rains. The devastating effects of the rains were “primarily due to environmental degradation’’, Majaliwa added, blaming deforestation, unsustainable farming practices such as ‘’slash and burn’’ agriculture, and unregulated livestock grazing.
Majaliwa warned those living in low-lying areas to move to higher ground and urged district officials to ensure that provisions meant for those whose homes were washed away go to those in need of the supplies. On 14 April, the government said a total of 58 people, including children, had been killed in rains and floods since the beginning of the month. The East African region has been pounded by heavier-than-usual rainfall during the current rainy season, with flooding also reported in neighbouring Burundi and Kenya.
The rains cut off movement between Kenya and Tanzania on the Nairobi-Namanga highway for the better part of the day after the Athi River burst its banks, flooding a large part of residential and industrial areas in Kajiado and Machakos counties. The Red Cross and other volunteers rescued several people marooned in the Athi River. Residents of Ruaka in Nairobi, Kenya, salvaged properties after heavy rains, which occurred in various parts of the country, left roads and a number of homesteads flooded on 23 April.
Devastating floods threaten to worsen food insecurity across Eastern Africa as heavy rains lash a region that less than a year ago was in the grips of drought, warns the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). Climate change continues to wreak havoc in Eastern Africa, a region with minimal emissions yet that bears the brunt of the global climate emergency. Five consecutive “failed’’ rainy seasons between 2020 and 2022 resulted in a devasting drought that pushed millions into food insecurity and malnutrition as livelihoods were destroyed at a massive scale—damage that will take families and communities many years to recover.
Now that nascent recovery is being swept away by floods, since the start of the October-December rains, rainfall at 140% above average has destroyed property, infrastructure, and crops and washed away livestock. Scores of lives have also been lost. “Eastern Africa is being lashed by the extremes of climate change—from no water to too much water—resulting in a catastrophe. Severe floods are causing devastation, illustrating how an erratic climate continues to punish the region. With more rain forecast, I fear that the worst is yet to come,’’ said Michael Dunford, WFP Regional Director in Eastern Africa.
WFP has provided food and cash assistance to nearly 580 000 people affected by the floods across the Horn of Africa, in addition to those supported through pre-existing relief operations. “WPF is supporting governments and humanitarian partners with logistics services across the region. However, the scale of the crisis demands more support and expanding our operations. We are actively working to secure additional resources to reach up to two million more people affected by the floods. The need is urgent, and we cannot do it alone,’’ Dunford adds. “It is particularly crucial at the UN Climate Change Summit in Dubai that developed nations step up and assist countries, which are disproportionately paying a high price for the climate crisis. We need to break the never-ending cycle of crises and respond with climate action that focuses on preparedness and protection before predictable shocks hit,’’ Dunford concluded. The United Nations World Food Programme is the world’s largest humanitarian organisation, saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability, and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of climate change.
*Dr Moses Amweelo is a former Minister of Works, Transport and Communication. He is currently a lecturer at IUM and UNAM on a part-time basis. He earned a doctorate in technical science, industrial engineering, and management from the International Transport Academy (St. Petersburg, Russia).