Dr Moses Amweelo
Transport will play a critical role in delivering the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions cuts needed to meet global political climate change targets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that fuel consumption and emissions of CO2 from the world’s cars will roughly double between 2000 and 2050 (IEA, 2008).
The IEA and the International Transport Forum (ITF) have developed a range of projections of possible ‘’business-as-usual’’ scenarios.
These ‘’baseline scenarios’’ indicate the potential for a doubling of vehicle kilometres travelled, combined with modest improvements in vehicle fuel economy.
These take into account an improvement in the fuel efficiency of new cars based on existing fuel economy regulations, mainly in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, with improvements slowing in most regions after 2015.
If something close to the higher-end trajectory occurs, fuel economy improvement will be even more important to contain the rise in global CO2 emissions. And other complementary measures, such as careful land-use planning, travel demand management, development of high-quality transit systems where these provide more efficient transport services than private cars, and strong shifts to low-carbon fuels, will be needed to help move toward outright reductions in CO2 and reach levels well below those of 2005. In any case, cutting vehicle fuel use per kilometre by half by 2050 is central to transforming current trends into a more sustainable picture.
In addressing the global climate emergency, all countries have a role to play.
Namibia, like many other nations, is working to design and implementing the right policies before it is too late. ‘’If we act now and if we act decisively, further global warming can be limited and this should be our goal,’’ said Deputy Minister of Mines and Energy in Namibia, Kornelia Shilunga on 30 September 2019, during the opening of a national stakeholder workshop on fuel economy baseline findings.
She also spoke of Namibia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement where increased energy efficiency, mass transport and carpooling were identified as possible measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport.
The fuel economy baseline study in Namibia was funded by the Federation Internationale de I’Automobile (FIA) Foundation, one of the primary donors to the global fuel economy initiative which is supporting 100 developing and transitional countries to analyse the fuel economy of their fleet so as to inform policy formulation.
Better fuel economy contributes to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 7.3 target on doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030. The average fuel economy of light-duty vehicles imported into Namibia in 2018 was 6.7 litres per 100 kilometres, compared to 8.3 litres per 100 kilometres in 2005.
Other recommendations made were regional harmonisation of policies and regulations as well as commitment by leaders to promote cleaner vehicles. Worldwide, cars currently account for close to half of the transport sector’s fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Their dominant position in the sector is set to remain although their share will fall to just under 40% by 2050, with aviation set to grow to match road freight at around 22% of fuel consumption and emissions each (IEA, 2008).
A major challenge is the rapid growth of the vehicle fleets in developing and transition countries. Electric vehicles offer substantial savings in gasoline and diesel and will reduce CO2 emissions. Significant CO2 reductions will be achieved if these vehicles use electricity generated from low carbon or renewable resources. Empirical evidence shows that there is a clear opportunity to improve new car fuel economy 50 percent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels in a cost-effective manner (e.g. low or negative cost per tonne of CO2).
Improving the efficiency of new cars at this rate would make possible a 50 percent improvement in the average fuel economy of all cars on the road worldwide by 2050, compared to 2005. This view is supported by academic engineers and the car manufacturing industry, as presentations at the 2008 International Transport Forum in Leipzig suggested, and by the analysis presented in the IEA’s report, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA,2008).
Professor Julia King of Aston University, in a report to the UK Government (King, 2007), identified a potential to improve fuel efficiency of new cars by 30% within a decade with conventional technologies.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) based Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles (PCFV) has shown that it is possible to set global targets for reduced vehicle emissions and, through a concerted effort of governments, the fuel and vehicle industry, international organisations and civil society, achieve major results in a short time frame.
A similar partnership approach can be followed for this initiative. This is especially important to ensure a harmonised approach and to ensure that automotive fuel efficiency will be prioritised and addressed in developing and transition countries.
*Dr Moses Amweelo is a former minister of works, transport and communication. He earned a doctorate in technical science, industrial engineering and management from the International Transport Academy (St. Petersburg, Russia).