Declining transaction volumes are mostly to blame for a notable contraction in the country’s average house prices. 

This is according to the latest FNB residential property price index released last week, indicating the national weighted average house price ended the fourth quarter of 2021 at N$1 181 225, down from N$1 240 943 in 2020.

Overall, the index posted a 12-month average growth of 7.1% at the end of 2021 from 10.4% at the end of the prior quarter and 4.6% over the same period of 2020.  

Similarly, the 12-month average growth in respect of the volume index ebbed to merely 6.6% from 21.7% a year ago. 

Although the price index growth remains relatively robust by annual comparison, these waning transaction volumes are causing a considerable dip in average house prices. 

In effect, the FNB residential rental index for the fourth quarter of 2021 posted a smaller contraction of 0.7%, thus highlighting a significant improvement when compared to a contraction of 2.1% recorded the year before. 

Also, in view of Angola being an important fraction of Namibia’s property market development, the astronomic rise in global oil prices is expected to improve economic prospects in that jurisdiction. 

This, in turn, should result in a probable return of Angolans’ leisure and educational travels to Namibia.

That, coupled with the expected rebound in domestic economic activity, are likely to be the key tailwinds for the Namibia property market in the short-to-medium term.

“The recent strength in the housing index growth, which was short-lived, is associated with the aggressive interest rate cuts that started in early 2020 at the start of the Covid-19 crisis. The cumulative reduction in interest rates stimulated a strong surge in home buying. Tied to this, the negative economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic had also increased volatility on the supply of housing transactions due to forced sales,” said Frans Uusiku, FNB Namibia market research manager. 

However, Uusiku explained these cyclical forces appear to have dissipated as the real estate market reshapes, along with the reopening of the economy and resumption of a tight monetary policy cycle. 

“Simply put, we are starting to see a return to a somewhat ‘normalised’ positioning of the real estate market as the rental market continues to pick up steam,” said Uusiku.  

However, he noted, the observed volatility in the overall housing index also appears to highlight the extreme sensitivity of the Namibian residential property market to interest rates adjustments. 

This, he added, could be justified by limited affordability scope, with household debt to a disposable income, estimated at around 89%. 

Uusiku further explained that lending institutions are skating on thin ice from an affordability perspective as the ultra-low-income market struggles to find affordable housing stock. Yet, this market is estimated to account for some 70% of the total addressable market in the country. 

The FNB market researcher cautioned that the rise in interest rates present a critical risk factor for the development of Namibia’s real estate market. 

This could be particularly risky if not cushioned with increased public and private sectors’ spending towards land servicing and subsequently scaling up the stock for affordable housing (below N$500 000).

“The issue of rising inflation has been talked about since early 2021 when the impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains started to become evident and inflation expectations began to build. Several central banks across the world started to raise rates towards the end of 2021, including the South African Reserves Bank and subsequently the Bank of Namibia in early 2022. We believe these developments are already starting to affect investors’ thinking on where to place their capital in 2022 and beyond as evidenced by waning deal flow in the recent months,” Uusiku concluded. 

- ebrandt@nepc.com.na