WINDHOEK – The economies of sub-Saharan African countries are poised for good economic performance, with the International Monetary Fund projecting a growth of 6.1 percent this year as well 5.8 percent next year.
The new projections are a percentage increase from the earlier projection of 6 percent for this year and 5.7 percent for next year. The positive outlook is not without risks, especially in the emerging markets where growth is expected to be limited because of tighter financial market conditions and other structural bottlenecks. In addition the US’s new monetary approach to stimulate the economy is expected to negatively affect capital flows to emerging markets.
The Namibian economy improved ‘considerably’ in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the second quarter, thanks to strong performance of the manufacturing sector, which grew 15.2 percent and wholesale and retail that went up 11.6 percent. Agriculture grew by 31.9 percent year on year. The figures are contained in the newly released Economic Update of the Ministry of Finance. “The growth in manufacturing can be attributed to impressive growth in the ‘other manufacturing’, ‘manufacturing of other food products’ and ‘meat processing’ subsectors, while strong sales of livestock due to the recent drought conditions accounted for the ongoing rapid growth in agriculture. Meanwhile, transport and communication also recorded robust growth of 6.8 percent, compared to the negative growth of 3.8 percent in the second quarter,” the report said. These impressive performances were offset by a reversal in fortunes in the fishing sector and continued weakness in hotels and restaurants. The fishing sector contracted by 8.3 percent in the third quarter of 2013 down from 7 percent recorded in the second quarter, while it contracted by 9.1 percent year on year. This however, marked an improvement compared to the contraction of 31.2 percent recorded in the second quarter.
The weak performance in this sector is mainly due to reduced tourism activities. The improved performance of the Namibian economy during the third quarter of 2013 means that the Ministry of Finance’s estimate of robust full-year growth of 4.8 percent in 2013 remains relevant. However, with risks still weighted firmly to the downside, developments will have to be monitored closely. Real GDP is expected to increase by 5 percent in 2014, after which it is projected to slow to 4.8 percent in 2015.
By Staff Reporter