WINDHOEK – Although the hopes of Namibians accross the country for a good start to the rainy season in October were dashed, it is likely that the country could celebrate a wet Christmas and an even wetter January and February 2014, according to the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF).
Poor rainfall since 2012 already had a devastating impact on livelihoods in many areas across the country, which depend mainly on crop agriculture and agro-pastoral activities. Namibia is currently in the grip of its worst drought in 30 years, and last week the Namibian Agronomic Board warned that up to 50 percent less maize could be planted this year due to the lack of rain and poor soil moisture. The country’s aggregate coarse grain production (white maize, mahangu, wheat and sorghum) could be seriously affected by this situation in a time when lack of grazing is threatening livestock, while household food security is tightening in all regions as the hunger season has reaches its peak. Water availability could also remain constrained, since water levels are currently low in most areas and the levels of dams have dropped dramatically, compared to last year the same time. According to SARCOF the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the period October to December, as well as deep into the New Year. While Namibia experienced an almost rainless October and November, chances are likely that the country could share in the predicted normal to above normal rains in the coming months until the end of February next year. The forecast for above-normal rains for countries in the eastern regions of SDAC materialised last week when heavy downpours left thousands of people homeless in the Western Cape. In the November-December 2013 to January 2014 period, the bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while the greater part of DRC, northernmost and south-western Angola and the western fringes of Namibia and South Africa are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.
The bulk of both contiguous SADC and the island states of Madagascar and Mauritius are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during December 2013 to February 2014. However, south-western Angola, most of Namibia, the western half of Botswana, as well as most of the central and western parts of South Africa and Lesotho are likely to receive above-normal to normal rainfall, while the eastern half of Tanzania is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall. For the period January to March 2014, the bulk of SADC is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, the tongue stretching from the eastern coast of northern Mozambique through the central parts of the region extending to the southwestern central parts of the region are likely to receive above-normal to normal rainfall. Climate scientists from the SADC National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) formulated the latest outlook.
This outlook covers the major rainfall season from October 2013 to March 2014. The outlooks are presented in overlapping three-monthly periods as follows: October-November-December (OND), November-December-January (NDJ), December-January-February (DJF) and January-February-March (JFM). Using statistical and other climate prediction schemes and expert interpretation, the climate scientists determined likelihoods of above-normal, normal and below-normal rainfall for each area for overlapping three-monthly periods i.e. October-November-December (OND), November-December-January (NDJ), December-January-February (DJF) and January-February-March (JFM). Above-normal rainfall is defined as lying within the wettest third of recorded (30 year, that is, 1971 -2000 or 40 year 1961-2000 mean) rainfall amounts; below-normal is defined as within the driest third of rainfall amounts and normal is the middle third, centred on the climatological median. The scientists also took into account that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is going to be in a neutral phase with a bias towards a weak La Niña during most of the rainy season. The period October to March is the main rainfall season over most of southern Africa.
By Deon Schlechter