Windhoek
All areas of Namibia have only a 25 percent chance of experiencing a wetter than normal rainy season, a 40 percent likelihood of a normal rainy season, and a 35 percent chance of below-normal amounts of rain from October this year to March next year.
This bleak picture unfolds from a Farmers Forum study based on predictions by various meteorologists using weather models that have been developed by comparing the relationship between sea surface temperatures and Namibia’s rainfall. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans are used to calculate the newly released rainfall outlook, and the strong El Niño presence does not bode well for Namibian farmers.
Namibia should therefore brace itself for the possibility of a second consecutive year of disappointing rainfall.
The seasonal rainfall forecast at this stage is that all areas of Namibia are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall over the coming rainy season, which starts in October and ends at the close of April. The seasonal rainfall outlook will be updated by the Namibia Meteorological Service’s as the start of the rainy season approaches. At the moment, ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are higher than normal, which signifies the presence of an El Niño weather event. An El Niño event usually has the effect of reduced rainfall in Namibia and the rest of southern Africa. The current El Niño is reported to be the strongest since a previous record El Niño in 1997-98, which also turned out to be a drier than normal rainy season in most of Namibia.
While speakers at the recent annual Agricultural Outlook Conference in Pretoria were moderately positive with regard to the political climate in South Africa, they all expressed great concern about the exceptional strong El Niño presence that could spell doom for agriculture in the 2015/16 rain season. Even though producers are positive, this outlook should be taken seriously and pro-active steps should be taken, weather guru’s warned at the conference.
Agriculture’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lowered from 6.1 percent in 2000 to 3.7 percent in 2014 while livestock farming has maintained an average contribution of 2.6 percent to GDP over the same period.
Chairperson of the Livestock Producers Organisation (LPO), Mecki Schneider, as well as Wallie Roux and Harald Marggraff of the Namibia Agricultural Union (NAU) attended the conference where various aspects such as the political climate, policies in South Africa, the outlook of commodity prices and the weather patterns were discussed.
The outlook for the most important commodities in Namibia were summed up at the conference as:
– Oil price: Nobody dares to give an outlook on prices as it is difficult to determine as there are too many factors that influence the supply of oil. The World Bank and Agricultural Policies (BFAP) however predict that the tendencies in oil prices over the next 10 years will increase to US$90 per tonne.
– Maize and wheat prices: It is expected that they will move sideward in the next year and also the prices of soya, sunflower and ground nuts
– Beef and mutton prices: It is expected that they will move sideward in the next year.
For now, predictions are that the chances are good that the south western parts of Namibia will get reasonable showers during October, November and December which will also spread to the southern parts in November, December 2015 and January 2016. During December, January and February 2016 the prospects for rain are however low. Furthermore it must be noted that the maximum temperatures during summer will be very high.
The Namibian agricultural sector is still reeling from the effects of the 2013 drought (the worst in 35 years) and the prolonged dry spell of 2014/15. Some 550 000 Namibians are in direct need of food aid now and government has rolled out a comprehensive drought food aid programme worth more than N$55 million.
Seasonal rainfall outlooks do not always prove correct, though, experience has shown. A year ago, the seasonal rainfall forecast for Namibia was that the country was likely to experience a normal to above-normal rainy season from October 2014 to March 2015.
As it turned out, seasonal rainfall figures by the end of April showed that most parts of Namibia – some areas in the south being the exception – were experiencing drought for the second year in three years. However, in most places the drought appeared to be less severe than the one that followed on the failed 2012/13 rainy season.