The growing cost of transport was the main driver of Namibia’s inflation increase in September, according to Helena Mboti, Economist at First National Bank Namibia.
Speaking on the latest inflation figures, Mboti noted that the jump was “mainly driven by higher inflation in the transport category, which saw prices rise by 1.3% year-on-year, after falling by 1.0% in August.’’
The Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) said the purchase of vehicles sub-category increased sharply to 4.4% in September from 2.8% the previous month. Prices went up across motorcycles, bicycles, and motorcars.
“This change added 0.2% points to headline inflation, which rose slightly to 3.5% in September from 3.2% in August. It also marked the first positive contribution from the transport sector since March,” she said.
Fuel prices, however, remained unchanged for October. According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, petrol remained at N$20.37 per litre, diesel 50ppm at N$19.92, and diesel 10ppm at N$20.02. The ministry said higher international oil prices, caused by geopolitical tensions, were partly offset by a stronger Namibia dollar.
“Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels inflation increased to 3.6% y/y in September from 3.4% in August and contributed 0.9ppts to headline inflation. The rise was driven by higher electricity and gas costs, which increased by 3.0% y/y, and higher water and sewerage costs at 4.0%, while rental inflation eased slightly to 3.7% from 4.2% a year earlier. Although rental inflation eased, rent remained the strongest-rising component of the housing and utilities category, and together with higher utility prices, the housing costs are likely to stay elevated, keeping household budgets under pressure in the near term,” she said.
She further said, food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation moderated slightly to 4.9% y/y in September from 5.2% in August, reflecting lower price growth across most categories except for fish (+9.0% y/y), meat (+3.0%), oils and fats (+2.6%, and fruit (+4.8%). Improved regional agricultural output has helped anchor food price dynamics, although the sector remains in contractionary territory as livestock herds gradually rebuild.
“Looking ahead, we maintained our inflation forecast at 3.5% y/y average for 2025. Transport and housing costs are likely to keep mild upward pressure on prices, while good rainfall prospects should continue to support lower food inflation over the medium term. Overall, the outlook remains stable, although higher global oil prices and persistent geopolitical risks could add to transport and imported cost pressures in the short term.
Simonis Storm issued a statement on inflation stating that, Namibia’s headline inflation ticked up slightly to 3.5% y/y in September 2025, from 3.2% y/y in August, marking the first increase in four months. Although inflation remains comfortably in the Bank of Namibia’s 3-6% watch level, this uptick signals a turning point in the disinflationary cycle that began in late 2023.
“The rise was primarily driven by transport inflation (+1.3% y/y) its first positive contribution since March and persistent price growth in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels (+3.6% y/y). Meanwhile, food inflation moderated marginally to 4.9% y/y, supported by improved regional crop outlooks and a stronger local currency. However, the reprieve in food prices may be temporary, as upside risks remain tied to weather variability, import costs, and global food market volatility,” the statement stated.
-pmukokobi@nepc.com.na