On 28 February 2026, the United State and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran, code named Operation Epic Fury. Its stated objectives include the elimination of Iranian nuclear and missile programmes, the destruction of Iranian naval capabilities, and the targeting of the nation’s leadership. Amongst the first casualties in this attack was Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Both countries are now trading counter accusations of “negotiating in bad faith” after the US launched an attack while negotiations were ongoing.

It is worth noting that the geopolitical relationship between the US and Iran is one of the most complex and volatile in modern history.

The reasons for the US military intervention are rooted in the following geopolitical factors:

• The US holds that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has increased significantly, putting them close to producing weapons-grade material for multiple warheads;

•  After the failure of “last chance” talks in Geneva (February 2026), the US shifted from “maximum pressure” to pre-emptive military strikes;

•  The US views Iran’s hegemony in the Middle East as the central destabilising force in the region. Attacking Iran is seen as a move to dismantle its network of regional proxies (the so-called Axis of Resistance);

•  Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes—are seen as a massive geopolitical lever, and the US’ strikes are aimed at ensuring “freedom of navigation”;

•  US foreign policy in the Middle East is deeply intertwined with the security of Israel and partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE;

•  Israel, backed by the US, views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat;

•  The shifting alliance between Israel and several Arab nations has further isolated Iran, thus giving the US a regional “buy-in” for the attack; and

•  The Trump administration has framed its military action as “help” for the Iranian people to achieve regime change, thus hoping to ferment popular uprisings.

Killing Iran’s spiritual leader and other key figures who were associated with the regime is one thing. However, pulling a “trump card” to secure stability in Iran and the entire region is a different ballgame altogether.

In retaliation, Iran has been launching missile attacks against US allies in the region, and this will obviously draw them into the conflict.

The record of the US’ military interventions in that part of the world leaves a lot to be desired. Whether we talk of Iraq, Syria, Libya or Afghanistan, the aftermath has always been chaos and disability.

Iran is a theocracy or a “religious-based” country. Most Iranians (61%) are Shia Muslims, and this religious identity is a defining character of the country’s culture, legal system and government. Therefore, it could be a gross miscalculation for Trump to think that most Iranians would regard him as a “messianic” figure.

Iran is an exceptionally diverse mosaic of cultures, languages and histories. It is a conglomeration of approximately 93 million people, comprising several major groups.

Apart from the Persians, who constitute about 61% of the population, other minority groups are the Kurds, Arabs, Azerbaijanis, Baloch, Turkmen, etc. Some of these groups may harbour breakaway ambitions or perhaps desire more autonomy, and this could easily lead to the disintegration of the country.

The Persian Empire, of which present-day Iran was the epicentre, was not just one single era. It was a series of dynasties that, at their peaks, created some of the largest empires in human history. At its height under rulers like Cyrus the Great and Darius I, the empire spanned three continents, ranging from the Middle East, Africa, the Caucasus, Central Asia, South Asia, and even some parts of Europe. This is a very rich history that is deeply ingrained in the collective DNA of Iranians – they are a very proud nation.

Because of Iran’s dual-military system, members of the Revolutionary Guard are different from the regular army. They are “children of the revolution” who are steeped in Islamic fundamentalism, and for them to surrender to the Americans may be out of the question.

Given these dynamics, the burning question is, does Trump have an endgame “trump card” for Iran?

*Gerson Uaripi Tjihenuna is a Commissioner of Elections. However, the views expressed here are entirely his and not those of ECN.