By Wezi Tjaronda
WINDHOEK
Although Namibia contributes little to greenhouse gases, its aridity and heavy reliance on natural resources makes the country one of the most vulnerable in Africa to climate change.
Climate change refers to changes in the average state of the atmosphere over time, ranging from decades to millions of years, which can be caused by processes internal to the earth, external forces such as variations in sunlight intensity and more recently, human activities.
Namibia’s transport sector is said to be the greatest emitter of carbon dioxide because of the long distances that are travelled to distribute goods and services, as well as enteric fermentation in livestock. But generally, the nation is a carbon sink because of increasing woody biomass due to bush encroachment. Studies indicate that 26 million hectares of woodland savannahs in Namibia are infested with invader bush.
However, due to climate change phenomena, projections are that temperatures will increase by 2 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100, rainfall will increase by 30 mm per year and severely decrease by 200 mm, evaporation will increase by 5 percent per degree of warming, while the sea level will rise by 30 to 100 cm by the year 2100.
Already, the impact can be felt on agricultural productivity, where periodic droughts are experienced resulting in livestock losses and reduced grain production, making this sector particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its link to national food security.
According to the Initial National Communication (INC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate of 2002, the impacts of climate change on household food security in the subsistence farming area could be dramatic, leading to social disruptions and displacement among rural communities.
Maize yields are likely to decrease under climate change scenarios in increased temperatures and less rainfall.
In addition, marine resources are also threatened by possible changes to the ocean current on Namibia’s west coast, as fish rely on nutrient-rich upwelling of the cold Benguela current and any changes to this might influence production.
“The warming trend may be one of several environmental factors that have contributed to declining fish stocks in recent years,” says the INC report.
Minister of Fisheries and Marine Resources, Dr Abraham Iyambo, last week announced that global warming was one of the threats to hake, a key generator of revenue in the fishing industry. The fishing industry contribution to GDP was 5 percent in 2005, according to the Bank of Namibia’s annual report of 2006.
In addition, predictions of sea level rises of 0.3m or more would inundate some parts of the coast, especially Walvis Bay port, even though Swakopmund and Henties Bay are also vulnerable but to a lesser extent.
Health-wise, diarrhoea, under nutrition, malaria and acute respiratory infections, which are responsible for most deaths of children under the age of five in Namibia, are also linked to climate change.
“Drought and the shortage of clean water for drinking and washing increase susceptibility to respiratory and gastro-intestinal infections. Malaria is an important cause of adult mortality. Projected changes in climate could extend the area at risk from malaria southwards into the centre of the country, a trend that is already apparent,” the INC says.
Statistics quoted in the INC report indicate that malaria cases in the south increased from 208 in 1995 to 4 257 in January 1997.
With this situation in mind the Ministry of Environment and Tourism and its stakeholders are undertaking several assessments and projects in its Second National Communications (SNC) final report due at the end of 2008, not only to counter the effects of climate change but also to bring in adaptation measures.
Ministry sources say that several assessments are currently under way such as a vulnerability assessment of the flood-prone Caprivi and Karas regions, which have perennial rivers; an energy review regarding the energy efficiency and energy use in the country; the northern railway line and how it could reduce fuel consumption; a review of greenhouse gas emissions by several companies in Windhoek, Walvis Bay, Swakopmund and Oshakati; and a vulnerability assessment that will also look at the impact of climate change and how it could be prevented in case of future disasters.
MET is also in consultation with the Ministry of Fisheries to find out what could be done in the case of sea level rises at the coast, which will affect the fishing industry.
The United Nations Development Programme is currently funding the Second National Communication through the Global Environment Facility and the Namibia Renewable Energy programme, of the Ministry of Mines and Energy to promote the use of renewable technologies and remove barriers that prevent people from using the technologies. Since the start of the project two and half years ago, about 1 000 applications for renewable energy technologies were received, of which close to 900 were given loans.
Catherine Odada of UNDP’s environment unit said in the pipeline are two projects, the adaptability of crops and livestock to climate change in the Omusati Region and a project that will look at energy efficiency in buildings.
The adaptability project, to start later this year, will look at the use of drought-resistant crops like mahangu and the sanga breed for livestock.
To reduce emissions, the INC said a number of projects could be carried out, which include energy system projects, aforestation and agro-forestry projects, promotion of improved stoves and charcoal kilns, efficient lighting and alternative energy sources, as well as rail infrastructure.
Today Namibia joins the world in celebrating World Environment Day when the globe draws focus and attention to key environmental issues that affect all.
Namibia’s national theme is, “Go Green – Use Renewable Energies: Namibia positioning itself to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of a global phenomenon – Climate Change”.