2024 is not just another election year; it is democracy’s biggest year ever as at least 64 countries will head to the polls, representing about 50% of the world population.
From major democracies to smaller nations, different countries are primed to hold national elections this year, the results of which many will prove consequential for the not-so-distant future.
Major powers such as the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, South Korea, North Korea and the European Union are all headed for decisive polls.
Perhaps the biggest election event will take place in India in May when around 800 million voters exercise their democratic right.
Interestingly, the election results in India will be announced on the same day the voting takes place, authorities have said.
On the African continent, Ghana, Rwanda, Algeria, Mali, Senegal, Tunisia, Togo and Botswana are all set to hold elections.
At home, Namibia’s November Presidential and National Assembly elections are set to separate pretenders from contenders.
While there is no clear favourite, if history is anything to go by, Swapo presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah – even if her candidacy is being contested by some party sections – has a slight advantage over her competition, as the ruling party’s presidential candidate has never lost an election since the dawn of democracy.
This year’s electoral contest is expected to pit Nandi-Ndaitwah against opposition leader and seasoned politician McHenry Venaani, her former comrades – dentist Panduleni Itula (Independent Patriots for Change), lawyer Bernadus Swartbooi (Landless People’s Movement) and social justice activist and political scientist Job Amupanda (Affirmative Repositioning movement).
Economist Mike Kavekotora (Rally for Democracy and Progress), unionist Evilastus Kaaronda (Swanu), businessman Epaphras Mukwiilongo (Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters), businesswoman Ally Angula, politician Apius Auchab (United Democratic Front), sociologist Utjiua Muinjangue (National Unity Democratic Organisation (Nudo)), veteran politicians Lukato Lukato (National Democratic Party) and Henk Mudge (Republican Party) as well as Hewat Beukes of the Workers’ Revolutionary Party, are all expected to feature on the crowded ballot paper in November.
South Africa heads to the polls in May, and like a wounded lion, it remains unclear if the African National Congress (ANC) will retain its grip on power.
Over the past year, public polls have suggested that after three decades in power, the ANC will not be able to garner the necessary 50% of votes needed to govern, maybe ending 30 years of one-party rule.
With a jam-packed political year ahead, New Era reached out to local pundits to gauge their views on the significance of 2024 from a political, economic and geopolitical perspective to Namibia in particular, the SADC region, Africa and the world in general.
Watershed moment
Lawyer and commentator Natjirikasorua Tjirera described the elections in Namibia and South Africa as watershed moments.
“For the first time in the relatively young but not so young democracies of Namibia and South Africa, it seems that the liberation movements which transformed themselves into governing parties are facing a myriad of challenges. In Namibia, Swapo seems to struggle to fight off the tag that it is corrupt, and that it has corrupt members in it. Despite the challenges that Swapo faces, I believe it will scrape through and still win elections this year,” Tjirera stated.
He harbours similar views about the ANC.
“In South Africa, I am almost certain that the ANC will come out of the elections as the biggest party, despite having had members defect from it to join the African Congress for Tranformation (ACT) under Ace Magashule, and significantly members joining the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which is supported by its former president Jacob Zuma. Having a former president and secretary general walking away is no mean feat, and it would have to be seen whether the party will gain 50% of the vote they need to govern on their own,” the analyst stated.
On the impact of the elections on ordinary Namibians, Tjirera does not see any.
“I do not think that Namibia and Namibians will be affected much by the elections taking place. For India, it will take a huge leap for the leftist alliance in India to take over the government, and even if they are to win, I do not believe they will change their foreign policy fast enough for the results of this year’s elections to reverberate across the globe. The Americans only have own interests at heart, and always had their interests at heart. Whoever wins will still carry their agenda.”
Driving his argument home, he said: “In short, Namibians should not expect favours from anyone, but should rather vote for issues presented to them, and should seek to know that they have power in their hands. Namibians should be reminded that their votes are very powerful, and it’s a tool that they should not take lightly”.
He added: “The most interesting part of the American election this year is whether former president Donald Trump will be allowed to run or not because of his alleged role in the 6 January Capitol building attack. Whatever the court rules will provide for interesting jurisprudence”.
Uncertainties
Another commentator, political scientist Rui Tyitende opined that 2024 will be an interesting yet uncertain year on the political landscape of major democracies, including South Africa and Namibia.
“At the global level, the United States is faced with the possibility of Trump returning to the Oval Office with an unhinged promise to upend the democratic institutions and processes on which the United States is built. Facing 91 criminal charges, Trump is of the view that the fraud, corruption and insurrection charges are a political witch-hunt meant to derail his ambitions of becoming president for the second time, albeit non-consecutively,” he stated.
“His [Trump’s] victory will have serious ramifications on the geopolitical landscape, as he has previously demonstrated unapologetically that he will withdraw American support and dominance in major regional and international alliances. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is one such issue that will be affected by a Trump presidency. As the ‘global beacons of democracy’, African nations will be watching with keen interest on how these elections unfold as they have a direct impact on trade, and economic and security cooperation on the continent. The war in Gaza has the potential to escalate with the potential of a full-blown conflict between the United States and Iran in the Gulf,” he further zeroed in.
All sizzle, no steak
Locally, he said electoral promises and well-crafted manifestos have failed to live up to their billing.
“Namibia’s short-term future is messy and disastrous, as the political elite have not moved beyond promises and plans. The reality is that people don’t want to hear any more promises. Sadly, the opposition is not offering a viable alternative to the governing party which is appealing to the voters. Ideologically, the opposition parties are similar in terms of what they have to offer. In some instances, they are offering the same as Swapo. So, do they have substantive options?” Tyitende wanted to know.
“With all the various socio-economic challenges, one would expect the opposition to take advantage and present policy alternatives as a united front. With the current fragmentation in the opposition parties, Swapo’s dominance will continue unabated at the national level. Too many egos and less policy ideas dominate opposition politics,” he asserted.
– emumbuu@nepc.com.na
Photo: Elections