ADDIS ABABA – Moves by the dominant party in Ethiopia’s Tigray to restore its control of the region could lead to “disastrous” renewed conflict with the federal government, analysts warned yesterday. 

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fought a brutal civil war against the federal government between 2020 and 2022 that claimed at least 600 000 lives. A peace deal led to a new interim administration being put in charge of Tigray by the federal government, sidelining the TPLF’s wartime leaders. But, with little progress on other aspects of the deal, the TPLF old guard has moved to reinstate its control of the region and last month restored the regional parliament that had been dissolved under the peace agreement. On Tuesday, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael was elected to head the restored parliament, the party’s deputy Amanuel Assefa told AFP. “The interim administration no longer exists,” Amanuel said. Analysts fear this could restart hostilities with the federal government in Addis Ababa. “It is extremely worrying,” Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College in Norway, told AFP, adding it was unclear if the move will lead to “negotiations or confrontations”.

“It is a strategy to rock the boat to see if it gives room for Tigray to obtain a stronger status in negotiating its financial and political status within the federation,” he said. The federal government has yet to respond to AFP on the consequences of the appointment. While regionally still powerful, the TPLF − which effectively ruled Ethiopia for three decades − was banned as a political party last year. 

“The constant manoeuvring could easily lead to a disastrous conflict,” Abel Abate Demissie, a researcher at the Chatham House think tank, said on X.

On Tuesday, the Ethiopian government accused the Sudanese army of having financed TPLF “mercenaries,” a claim it denied.

Several hundred thousand people remain displaced in Tigray from the 2020-2022 war and the region continues to struggle financially after authorities cut off federal subsidies. –Nampa/AFP