Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weak in the near term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the continent’s population and the impact of the crisis on developing economies. As such, passenger numbers within Africa are expected to recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025 (101%). 

This is according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) which expects overall global traveller numbers to reach four billion in 2024 (counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger), exceeding pre-Covid-19 levels (103% of the 2019 total).

Expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets. The overall picture presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant. 

“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from Covid-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. When travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger number gives good reason to be optimistic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.  This is a slightly more optimistic near-term international recovery scenario compared to November 2021, based on the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets. This has seen improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.

The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveller numbers is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian domestic markets have recovered, the same is not true for the other major domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan and Australia. 

“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus. The economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel,” said Walsh.

In this light, IATA has reiterated its call for the removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine; Pre-departure antigen testing to enable quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travellers; Removing all travel bans, and accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travellers pose no greater risk for Covid-19 spread than already exists in the general population.