Dr Moses Amweelo
The Conference of Parties number 28 (COP28) is important for several reasons, because it marks the conclusion of the first global stock take (GST), the main mechanism through which progress under the Paris Agreement is assessed.
It is clear the world is not on track to meeting the goals of the agreement, but the hope is that governments at COP28 will come up with a roadmap to accelerate climate action. World leaders are set to discuss tackling climate change at a big United Nations summit in Dubai. It follows a year of extreme weather events in which many climate records have been broken. Governments discuss how to limit and prepare for future climate change. The summit is being held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 30 November until 12 December 2023. It has appointed the chief executive of the state-owned oil company, Sultan Al Jaber, president of the COP28 talks; he is currently the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
He is also the minister for industry and advanced technology for the COP28 hosts, the United Arab Emirates. Campaigners say he must stand down from his oil business role while president, as it is a clear conflict of interest. They believe someone steeped in the oil industry may not push countries to rapidly reduce their production and use of fossil fuel, which scientists say is critical to avoiding dangerous climate change. Running the global climate talks process is not an easy job – for months before and especially during the conference, every word and action of the president is heavily scrutinised.
Oil – like gas and coal – is a fossil fuel, and these are the main causes of climate change because they release planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned.
Scientists and politicians say we are facing a planetary crisis because of climate change, but what is the evidence for global warming, and how do we know it is being caused by humans?
Our planet has been warming rapidly since the dawn of the industrial revolution. The average temperature at the Earth’s surface has risen about 1.1 degree Celsius since 1850. Furthermore, each of the last four decades has been warmer than any that preceded it – since the middle of the 19th century. These conclusions come from analyses of millions of measurements gathered in different parts of the world. The temperature readings are collected by weather stations on land, ships and by satellites.
Multiple independent teams of scientists have reached the same result – a spike in temperatures coinciding with the onset of the industrial era.
Scientists can reconstruct temperature fluctuations even further back in time.
Tree rings, ice cores, lake sediments and corals all record a signature of the past climate.
This provides much-needed context to the current phase of warming. In fact, scientists estimate the Earth has not been this hot for about 125 000 years.
The question is, how do we know humans are responsible for global warming?
The answer is: Greenhouse gases – which trap the sun’s heat – are the crucial link between temperature rise and human activities.
The most important is carbon dioxide (CO2), because of its abundance in the atmosphere. We can also tell it is CO2 trapping the sun’s energy. Satellites show less heat from the Earth escaping into space at precisely the wavelengths at which CO2 absorbs radiated energy.
Burning fossil fuels and chopping down trees lead to the release of this greenhouse gas. Both activities exploded after the 19th century, so it is unsurprising that atmospheric CO2 increased over the same period. Al Jaber argues that he is uniquely well-placed to push for action from the oil and gas industry and, as chairman of renewable energy firm Masdar, he has also overseen the expansion of clean technologies like wind and solar power.
The big question is also, why is COP28 important? It is hoped that it will help keep alive the goal of limiting long-term global temperature rises to 1.5 degree Celsius.
This was agreed by nearly 200 countries in Paris in 2015. The 1.5-degree Celsius target is crucial to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change, according to the UN’s climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Long-term warming currently stands at about 1.1 degree Celsius or 1.2 degree Celsius, compared with pre-industrial times – the period before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale.
However, the world is on track for about 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2 100 – even with current pledges to tackle emissions. The window for keeping the 1.5-degree Celsius limit in reach is “rapidly narrowing”, the UN says. Progress towards the Paris goals will be a focus, but COP28 will concentrate on fast-tracking the move to clean energy sources to “slash” greenhouse gas emissions before 2030, delivering money for climate action from richer to poorer countries and working on a new deal for developing nations, focusing on nature and people, and making COP28 the “most inclusive” ever.
There will also be themed days on issues, including health, finance, food and nature. At COP27, a “loss and damage” fund was agreed for richer countries to pay poorer countries facing the effects of climate change.
But exactly how this will work is still unclear. The US, for example, has ruled out paying climate reparations for its historical emissions.
In 2009, developed countries committed to give US$100 billion a year by 2020 to developing countries to help them reduce emissions and prepare for climate change. The target was missed, but it is expected to be reached this year (2023).
Critics of previous COPs, including campaigner Greta Thunberg, accuse the summits of “greenwashing”: that is, countries and businesses promote their climate credentials without making the changes needed.
But, as world leaders gather, the summits offer potential for global agreements that go beyond national measures. For example, the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit, agreed in Paris at COP21, has driven “near-universal climate action’’, according to the UN.
* Dr Moses Amweelo is a former minister of Works, Transport and Communication. He earned a doctorate in Technical Science, Industrial Engineering and Management from the International Transport
Academy (St Petersburg, Russia).