China currently has 22 nuclear reactor units under construction. One such reactor would be enough to power the entire Namibia. That, in essence, is uranium’s potential as an energy source. 

Namibia currently exports hundreds of thousands of kilogrammes of uranium to China and other countries every year. During 2022, Namibian uranium exports to China totalled US$553.07 million, according to the United Nations international trading database. 

But although Namibia is now the third largest primary producer of processed uranium (U3O8) globally, after Kazakhstan and Canada, the country’s energy deficiency persists partly because it does not utilise any of its abundant uranium for nuclear energy. 

Bottlenecks embedded in economic, lack of technological advancement, regulatory framework, environmental concerns and financial constraints are among the reasons why Namibia is yet to explore the full potential of its opulent energy resources, including nuclear. 

It is estimated that nuclear power currently accounts for about 10% of global electricity generation, a figure that rises to almost 20% in advanced economies. 

Proponents of using uranium
for nuclear energy argue that it is a domestic energy source, emphasising that all other countries using nuclear power are keeping their own uranium deposits as strategic fuel reserves. 

Supporters of this energy option also maintain that nuclear reactors use
proven technologies with a mature supply chain.

There are also calls by African scientists to adopt nuclear energy on the strength of their low carbon footprint and ability to operate continuously and reliably, regardless of the weather conditions or time of day. 

In addition, a small nuclear reactor utilises a small physical footprint, estimated to be less than half a square kilometre. Also, it is understood that nuclear reactors emit basically zero emissions for electricity production, are relatively cheap to operate and a single plant lasts for about 80 years. 

“We already operated a coal power plant, and nuclear is basically the same principle,” commented a nuclear scientist. 

However, according to Abraham Hangula, the deputy director of energy planning and research at the energy ministry: “The issue is not the resource availability. Our main resources such as wind, solar, biomass, wave and nuclear can all individually meet our demand multiple times over. The question of why we are not using any of our resources to meet our demand is economic, technological, regulatory, environmental, financial, demand, etc”.

Responding to detailed questions, Hangula added that Namibia does not have any specific policy against going nuclear. However, it seems unlikely to anticipate the construction of a nuclear power plant, even a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) in the near future in Namibia. 

This, Hangula explained is due to numerous factors, including the fact that the establishment of a nuclear regulatory commission can take up to 10 years because applicable expertise has to be incorporated into such a body.

Other factors that hamper Namibia’s entrance into the nuclear age include financing access, base-load generation, export demand, a reliable transmission network, long commissioning periods as well as maintenance and operation. 

In terms of financing, Hangula noted that the pursuit of nuclear energy would require full government backup as well as appropriate support and participation, particularly where guarantees are required. And, as Hangula pointed out: “Currently government does not give guarantees”.

The deputy director continued that a nuclear power generation unit can only be dispatched on a base-load operating regime. 

He explained: “Namibia’s baseload is roughly 350 while an Optimal Small Modular Reactor (SMR) is in the range of 300MW.  Such capacities from one generator on our system could result in generation from solar, wind and other generators that are available to be split. Baseload should not be supplied by one source only”.

Hangula added that regional cooperation would be required as the generation capacity of even a small nuclear power plant may exceed Namibia’s ability to absorb the full generation capacity. 

He noted that the output from a nuclear power plant must be sent out to the national grid through reliable transmission lines, without interruptions in order to minimise the risk of overheating. 

Moreover, Hangula pointed out that the construction of a typical SMR is likely to take several years once environmental and other required approval has been obtained. 

Overall, Hangula emphasised that going nuclear requires considerable technical expertise and a technology base in order to be able to supply specialist skills and products for a nuclear power station. 

And, Namibia’s inexperience in terms of nuclear technology would result in the country importing necessary skills at considerable costs during the initial years of operation.

Peak

Traditionally, Namibia reaches peak electricity demand during June and July. Last year’s national energy demand was 3 983 Gigawatt hours (GWh) with a peak demand of 637 Megawatt (MW).  

Ministerial growth projections in the National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) are 5300 GWh and 900MW peak by 2028. 

According to the International Energy Agency, nuclear energy has historically been one of the largest global contributors of carbon-free electricity and while it faces challenges in some countries, it has significant potential to contribute to power sector decarbonisation. 

China factor 

Globally, around 60 nuclear power reactors are under construction with more than 400 in operation. China is currently listed as third in the world for nuclear power generation, after France and the United States of America. However, it is estimated that by 2030, China is expected to lead the world in installed nuclear power capacity. 

“The speed of China’s growth of nuclear power is remarkable, from the first nuclear reactor that connected to the grid in 1991 to the 55 nuclear reactors in operation today,” said Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Grossi was speaking in China last week where he met with several high-level officials and visited several nuclear facilities. 

By 2035, China’s nuclear power generation is expected to account for 10% of that country’s electricity generation. 

Meanwhile, nuclear power is not a viable option for countries such as Australia where a plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 is being pursued. Net Zero Australia, a collaboration between top universities and consultancy firm Nous Group, recently published a report modeling Australia’s path to its 2050 climate target.

The report said the Australian federal government must accelerate all options that could make a “material contribution” to net zero including batteries, solar, onshore wind and pumped hydro.