One of the most notable developments at this year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP28), which ended this week, was a declaration by at least 20 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Canada to triple their nuclear power capacity by 2025. Even neighbouring South Africa this week revealed plans to add 2 500 megawatts of new electricity through nuclear power-generation. Yet, despite abundant uranium resources, Namibia still stubbornly neglects its own uranium resource blessings to remain a net electricity importer, and thereby continues to rely heavily on purchasing power from its neighbours.
The amount of uranium Namibia has exported since the 1970s could actually produce more than 100 times the country’s current annual electricity consumption. In fact, the World Nuclear Association (WNA) states that just one small nuclear reactor could produce around 186% of Namibia’s electricity demands, whilst two reactors would provide 372% of the country’s electricity demands. In addition, the WNA stressed that nuclear power is currently significantly safer than fossil fuel production methods, and even safer than renewable energy generation.
According to the mines and energy ministry, the reasons Namibia does not utilise its own uranium resources boils down to economic, technological, regulatory, environmental and financial reasons, coupled with a lack of general demand in the region.
However, with technological advancements in the construction of nuclear plants, the nuclear option has been touted by experts as a low-carbon source of energy that can provide a reliable baseload supply of energy. For many pundits, nuclear is a much better option than renewables such as solar and wind, which are intermittent due to weather dependency. This is because nuclear power, as a continuous domestic low-carbon energy source, offers a stable and uninterrupted source of electricity for the national economy.
“There is no reason why Namibia couldn’t follow in the footsteps of more than 50 other countries who have developed nuclear energy programmes. South Africa has already constructed a nuclear power plant in the region, with two 930 MWe reactors built at the Koeberg nuclear power plant in 1985. That is not, however, to understate the significant preparation required to facilitate the development of nuclear reactors,” the WNA stated in response to New Era queries.
Providing an in-depth analysis of Namibia’s nuclear potential, the WNA noted that fluctuating global energy markets have emphasised the need for countries to prioritise energy security, which is crucial for industries, businesses and households. The association also pointed out that throughout the lifecycle of a nuclear power plant, namely the construction, operation and decommissioning, nuclear power plants create highly-skilled and high-paying jobs. This means that through nuclear, Namibia could foster a skilled workforce which would contribute to technological innovation and economic growth. Since Namibian uranium mining commenced in the 1970s, the country has produced about 160 000 tonnes of uranium. From 160 000 tU, about 6 000 to 6 500 terawatt hours (TWh) could be produced.
“As in other industries, the design and operation of nuclear power plants aim to minimise the likelihood of accidents, and avoid major human consequences when they occur. Only two major accidents - Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi - have occurred in over 18 500 cumulative reactor-years of commercial nuclear power operation in 36 countries. Thanks to new reactor and safety designs, the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants is low and declining. Nuclear has been proven to be one of the safest forms of electricity generation,” the WNA stated.
What is possible
The WNA admitted that developing
foundations for nuclear power will take time. Nevertheless, the WNA cited an example of the United
Arab Emirates’ successful construction of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, featuring four units with a total capacity of 5 600 megawatts-electric, in around 13 years, that demonstrates what is possible.
According to the WNA analysis, Namibia consumed 3 759 GWh of electricity in 2020, whilst only producing 1 957 GWh, meaning the country still relies on imports to meet local electricity demand.
“Large gigawatt reactors are characterised
by high upfront capital costs and long construction periods, low and stable operational costs, and lengthy payback periods.
Therefore, the modular construction of smaller reactors – known as small modular reactors (SMRs) – may be more feasible for Namibia. Similar to large gigawatt reactors, generational capacities of SMRs vary depending on design, but are usually defined as nuclear reactors of 300 MWe equivalent or less, designed with modular technology using module factory fabrication, pursuing economies of series production, and short construction times. Therefore, a 300 MWe SMR with a capacity factor of 80% would generate ~2 016 GWh annually, supplying around 54% of Namibia’s current electricity requirements,” the WNA added.
The association further pointed out that the construction time of a reactor may vary significantly, depending on a multitude of factors. “Most notably, constructing identical reactors consecutively enhances construction efficiency, and boosts the availability of the supply chain. The 2023 World Nuclear Performance Report showed that the shortest construction times were achieved with the construction of pressurised water reactors (PWRs) in China, and the Chinese-designed HPR1000 reactor at Karachi, Pakistan. In contrast, first-of-a-kind units, most notably Olkiluoto 3, have taken far longer to construct than initially anticipated.
The median construction time for reactors grid-connected in 2022 was 89 months or over seven years”, the WNA continued.
Electricity generated from a nuclear reactor varies, depending on the size and design of the reactor. The most common reactor type is the PWR, with around 300 operable reactors worldwide.
Ministerial position
Explaining Namibia’s position earlier this year on nuclear power, Abraham Hangula, deputy director of energy planning and research in the mines and energy ministry, said the issue is not resources’ availability.
“Our main resources such as wind, solar, biomass, wave and nuclear can all individually meet our demand multiple times over. The question of why we are not using any of our resources to meet our demand is economic, technological, regulatory, environmental, financial demand, etc”. Hangula noted that Namibia does not have any specific policy against going nuclear, but admitted it seems unlikely to anticipate the construction of a domestic nuclear power plant, even a SMR in the near future. This, he emphasised, is due to numerous factors like the establishment of a nuclear regulatory commission, which can take up to 10 years, as applicable expertise has to be incorporated into such a body.
Other factors which hamper Namibia’s entrance into the nuclear age include financing access, base-load generation, export demand, a reliable transmission network,
long commissioning periods as well as maintenance and operation. “Namibia’s baseload is roughly 350MW, while an optimal SMR is in the range of 300MW. Such capacities from one generator on our system could result in generation from solar, wind and other generators that are available to be split. Baseload should not be supplied by one source only,” said Hangula.
He added that regional cooperation would be required, as the generation capacity of even a small nuclear power plant may exceed Namibia’s ability to absorb the full generation capacity, noting that the output from a nuclear power plant must be sent out to the national grid through reliable transmission lines without interruptions in order to minimise the risk of overheating. Overall, he reiterated that going nuclear for Namibia would require considerable technical expertise and a technology base in order to be able to supply specialist skills and products for a nuclear power station.
According to the International Energy Agency, nuclear energy has historically been one of the largest global contributors of carbon-free electricity. While it faces challenges in some countries, it has significant potential to contribute to power sector decarbonisation.
– ebrandt@nepc.com.na