When secretary general of United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Rebeca Grynspan addresses Namibians this Thursday, her visit will carry more than diplomatic symbolism.
The secretary general is visiting at a time when Namibia is at an economic crossroads, facing mineral wealth, high demand for jobs and the need for stability and long-term growth.
At the heart of Thursday’s scheduled visit is the launch of UNCTAD’s new Rapid Assessment for Value Addition and Diversification in Namibia.
Behind the technical title lies a simple but powerful question of how Namibia can turn its mineral wealth into broader prosperity for its people. The answer, according to the new UN report, could be transformative – a US$900 million (over N$14 billion) opening and 26 000 livelihoods. The assessment estimates that Namibia could unlock more than US$900 million in new economic activity and create around 26 000 jobs if it moves beyond exporting raw minerals and invests in processing, manufacturing and related industries.
For a country where unemployment remains a pressing concern, particularly among the youth, those numbers represent more than statistics. They represent families with income, graduates with opportunity and communities less exposed to the boom-and-bust cycles of global commodity prices.
As demand worldwide surges for critical energy transition minerals used in batteries, renewable energy systems and clean technologies, Namibia is well positioned to supply. But the report makes it clear: digging minerals out of the ground is only part of the story. The real opportunity lies in what happens next, namely value-addition.
Rather than proposing ambitious industrial dreams detached from reality, the UNCTAD report takes a practical approach.
Using economic complexity analysis, it identifies 353 products across 23 sectors that Namibia could realistically develop based on its existing capabilities. Of these, 60 products are directly linked to energy transition mineral value chains, offering an opportunity to move up the value ladder rather than remain at the bottom.
Under a global export scenario, 200 of these products could generate an estimated US$811 million in market opportunities.
Another US$117 million could come from producing goods locally that Namibia currently imports.
In short, the focus is on achievable “next steps”, not leaps into the unknown.
The findings of the UNCTAD report are scheduled to be presented on Thursday in Windhoek during an event organised in partnership with the National Planning Commission. Government leaders, private sector representatives, academics, civil society and UN officials are expected to attend. But the visit is about more than a two-hour presentation. Discussions are also expected to centre on investment mobilisation, digital development and debt sustainability as critical building blocks for Namibia to convert opportunities into concrete factories, supply chains and jobs. The assessment forms part of
UNCTAD’s project on critical energy transition minerals in southern Africa, funded by the government of Japan, and is designed to support Namibia’s broader industrialisation and value addition strategy.
For decades, Namibia has relied heavily on exporting raw minerals to earn foreign exchange and government revenue.
While that model has delivered important gains, it has also left the country exposed to global price swings and limited its ability to create large-scale employment.
This new report challenges Namibia to think differently, to see itself not just as a source of raw inputs for other economies, but as a country capable of producing higher-value goods and building stronger domestic industries.
If the projected US$900 million opportunity is realised, it would mark a meaningful structural shift in the economy, one that broadens the productive base and strengthens resilience against external shocks. Grynspan’s presence in Windhoek sends a clear signal that the international community sees Namibia’s economic potential. -ebrandt@nepc.com.na