Achieving economic growth, development, reduction of the productivity gap, and improvement of resilience will require a thorough and accurate paradigm shift involving all important stakeholders and development agencies.

Corruption, low productivity, subpar implementation, and poor performance by community leaders, such as certain government ministries, State-owned enterprises (SOEs), governors, councillors, and mayors, are some of the reasons for the economy’s long-term underperformance. 

The most effective way to reduce corruption in contracting processes is to establish policies and procedures that are both clear and practical. 

I recommend that H.E. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah hold a fiery rhetoric with her Cabinet members and take meaningful action against anyone who does not act in Namibians’ best interests. 

Additionally, the economy is projected to expand by roughly 4.0% in 2025; this is better but still insufficient. If fiscal conditions improve and we hold people accountable. I also expected Namibia’s debt-to-GDP ratio to continue declining to 57%, which would indicate strong nominal GDP growth. Prioritizing domestic revenue financing, concentrating on important industries like manufacturing, mining, energy, and agriculture, and encouraging non-traditional industries like logistics are all things the government should do. Besides that, the nation is anxiously awaiting the 2025 National Budget and how the national resources will be used. 

To improve resilience to economic shocks, the budget must address the country’s debt levels. To lessen Namibia’s reliance on borrowing from outside sources, the 2025 budget should prioritise increasing financing from domestic revenue. In the context of bringing the country’s debt levels down to 57%, this is especially important for enhancing fiscal sustainability. 

If State-owned businesses, government ministries, governors, councillors, and mayors are unable to rethink and create a system to increase revenue, they should all be removed from office. Without significantly changing the tax structure, the government should strive for domestic revenue contributions of at least 70% of the overall budget. Given that Namibia can have a minister with executive directors and councils with management teams, it is imperative to analyse portfolio duplication.

 As a result, I propose doing away with the positions of governor and deputy minister. If these positions are eliminated, Namibia will be unemployment-free because the money intended to fill the positions will be used to create some economic revenue. Namibia is an upper-middle-income country, but it has high rates of poverty and is among the most unequal in the world, according to the World Bank.  Things will be different under the leadership of H.E. Netumbo Ndemupaelila Nandi-Ndaitwah, the President-elect.

Additionally, Namibia can significantly decrease income inequality by providing more jobs for the unemployed and ensuring that corruption is addressed. Corruption kills the economy and damages the country’s reputation, which makes investors invest very little because their money is completely unsafe. Given that the government cannot address the unemployment crisis on its own, this means that investors will only make their largest investments in countries where they are safe. 

This limits the number of possible investors in Namibia. 

Namibia does not produce enough for export or domestic consumption. A country with such a small population suffers from a weak manufacturing base, as evidenced by its unstable foreign exchange, the small number of jobs created to accommodate new workers, and an import bill that is barely covered by current export revenue. Despite this, 70% of workers are employed in low-productivity sectors, such as the informal economy and agriculture. This indicates a lack of employment opportunities for the type of jobs that would help raise incomes and help many Namibians climb out of poverty.  

The new leadership must create a plan for social and economic inclusion in consultation with stakeholders.  Increasing the standard of living for the typical Namibian must be the primary objective of such an action plan. A workable plan for structurally transforming the economy which involves shifting investment and labour from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors must also be part of this thought. 

The government must create and execute national skills programmes targeted at upskilling young Namibians to maximise the potential of these sectors and guarantee that many more embrace skills and capabilities. Agriculture cannot support as many people as the manufacturing sector, which is far more productive. Namibian manufacturing would flourish because of the African Continental Free Trade Area’s (AfCFTA) adoption of a single market. Thus, addressing the growing sector deficit that inhibits the economic sector’s ability to compete must be President-elect H.E. Nandi-Ndaitwah’s top priority. 

To increase economic resilience against vulnerability and future shocks, the government will also need to reform trade and industrial policies that aim to promote scale, efficiency, and competitiveness. These policies must be incorporated into Namibia’s AfCFTA strategy and aid in the transition of small businesses, which are frequently the main contributors to the nation’s job growth. Mining isn’t Namibia’s only opportunity. As the primary means of increasing economic output, distributing wealth, and fortifying state tax payments, Namibia must diversify. The economy has also not grown inclusively, and Namibia’s economy has struggled with low productivity. This alignment is essential to making sure that decisions are both forward-looking and responsive to the present economic issues, with an emphasis on long-term growth and sustainability.

Furthermore, Namibia should put in place more proactive and efficient policies, prioritise high-quality development, encourage greater independence, and keep up a strong pace of social and economic progress. Every family wants to see improvements in the country’s health system, education, and pharmaceutics, as well as more medications in hospitals, pensions for the elderly, economic diversification, strategic partners, and a constant drop in inflation. They also want to see more and better job opportunities for young people, future business access to capital and mentorship, and the transition of the informal sector to formal trade. These are Namibians’ hopes for a higher quality of life. 

Moreover, although the geopolitics of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle East and part of Africa, inflation, and exchange rates have received a lot of attention, what matters most to the world is how Trump’s tariff threat could lead to a terrible global trade war that could cost countries with ties to the BRICS and ensnare many US trading partners. Both US and international trade will be disrupted by such tariffs, as countries compete to lessen the impact of US tariffs on their own economies and look for ways to avoid them.

In conclusion, Namibia needs to address long-standing and possibly binding growth constraints to maintain stronger growth. Improving trade facilitation, joining BRICS, enhancing the business climate, and other vital economic drivers are all necessary to achieve this.

*Josef Kefas Sheehama is an independent economics and business analyst.