Namibia’s unemployment rate increased from 33.4% in 2018 to 36.9% in 2023, the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) said yesterday during the release of the 2023 Labour Force Survey.
The survey’s release comes months after the announcement of the 2023 Population and Housing Census report, a situation that caused a stir in certain quarters.
However, Statistician General Alex Shimuafeni yesterday poured cold water over allegations of a sinister agenda in the release. He attributed the delay to issues out of their control, such as problems with a tender award, amongst other reasons.
“There’s nothing to hide in statistics, and the numbers don’t lie, and the figures are there,” Shimuafeni said.
However, some economists and commentators have taken the report with a grain of salt.
If the standard definition was to be applied, the unemployment rate would surge to 54.8%, making it one of the highest in the world, they opine.
Josef Sheehama, an independent economic and business researcher, said the shift in definitions masks the true scale of the “unemployment crisis”.
“Compared to the current state of affairs, can we trust these data?” he questioned.
“How was unemployment defined in surveys, and what questions were asked to guarantee that the data is properly interpreted and used by the government for planning purposes? Or did the agency simply collect data from counsellors’ offices, or how did they collect data on people who lived in outlying parts of the villages? It will be interesting to learn how the survey was administered to people in very remote locations.
This appears to be based on probability rather than actual numbers, so public awareness of the methodology is required,” he stated.
“In order to align the situation on the ground, this suppresses unemployment data until it is reviewed. Since these statistics must be backed up by evidence and the methodology employed, the agency has a lot to answer for”, Sheehama continued.
Meanwhile, financial services’ firm Cirrus Capital took to social media to also highlight concerns about the methodology used in the latest report.
Meanwhile, Landless People’s Movement (LPM) youth leader Duminga Ndala criticised the delayed release of the statistics, and questioned their accuracy.
“Of course, we accept the statistics as they were released by the NSA, but we find it unacceptable that such critical data was only published a year after the survey was conducted. Timely statistics are crucial, as they directly influence national policies and development efforts,” the outspoken youth said.
Ndala likewise questioned the NSA’s methodology, saying the reported figures may not reflect the realities of unemployment in Namibia.
“We all know unemployment is not just about numbers—it’s about lived experiences. Whenever there’s a job vacancy, we see thousands of young people applying for a handful of positions. This suggests that joblessness is far worse than what the statistics indicate. In our view, youth unemployment should be well over 70%, given the number of graduates entering the job market annually, along with those retrenched, and those who dropped out of school at a young age,” she added.
She also criticised the introduction of new categories such as the “potential labour force”, and those classified as “not interested in seeking employment”, saying these terms do not reflect the reality on the ground.
“If these statistics are indeed accurate, then as a country, we must act urgently to reduce unemployment. It’s a ticking time bomb, and we need concrete, tangible solutions to address the class and generational struggles of young Namibians,” stressed the youth leader.
Stats
The NSA report shows that Namibia’s working-age population (15 years and above) stands at 1.8 million, with 867 247 people in the labour force, and one million classified as outside the labour force.
The “alarming” statistics as described by experts also indicate that the employment-to-population ratio (EPR) has declined to 29.1%, meaning less than a third of the working-age population is employed.
Moreover, the labour force participation rate has decreased, the report shows.
A conspicuous 96.8% of the potential labour force has become discouraged from seeking jobs, while over a million working-age Namibians are not participating in the labour force, with 66% expressing no desire to seek employment.
This demographic explicitly does not seek employment, citing reasons such as full-time studies (241 125 or 36.2%), family responsibilities (235 954 or 35.4%), retirement (75 350 or 11.3%), and health-related challenges (26 619 or 4.0%).
SADC
On a regional scale, Namibia now holds the highest unemployment rate in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, surpassing Eswatini (31.4%), South Africa (27.5%) and Botswana (23.4%), as per a report of the International Labour Organisation (ILO).
Geographically, urban areas house a slightly larger share (53.8%) of the working-age population, compared to rural areas (46.2%).
Regions
Regionally, Khomas leads with 18.8% of the working-age population, while Omaheke records the lowest at 3.4%.
In contrast, youth unemployment has seen a slight improvement, decreasing by 1.7 percentage points to 44.4% from 46.1% in the 2018 Labour Force Survey.
However, a closer look at the figures shows a grim reality: the combined rate of youth unemployment and the potential labour force stands at 61.4%, indicating that more than 60% of young Namibians face some form of labour under-utilisation.
Additionally, the Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) rate is 41.9%, closely aligning with the youth unemployment rate.
The report suggests that a significant number of young people are eager to work, but remain excluded from the workforce.
Analysis
Speaking to New Era, local economist Almandro Jansen said while the youth unemployment rate appears to have improved, the situation on the ground does not reflect significant progress.
“A big concern remains around unemployment, particularly youth unemployment. It shows a decline in numbers, but at the ground level, we do not see appropriate improvements,” he observed.
Jansen said despite a consensus that the numbers are improving, “the government needs to do much more in terms of policies addressing unemployment, especially for the youth. The NSA is not responsible for this; it is the government that must put policies in place to drive employment growth. There are many talks about different projects, but where do employment figures match these initiatives, especially for youth employment?”
He further attributed the high unemployment rate to economic challenges, exacerbated by global shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Covid-19 was a significant shock; many people were retrenched and lost their jobs. Businesses are struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living, making it difficult to sustain employment levels. There has been a considerable burden on businesses, which has, in turn, affected employment prospects,” he noted.
– ashikololo@nepc.com.na